Top trends and sports betting tips from Sunday’s divisional matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings
In general, underdogs went 8-5 ATS (62-percent) in Week 11; their best effort since Week 1 of the season when they finished 11-5 (69-percent). That record makes this seem like a good time to review some dog trends from the past few years, starting with big divisional dogs.
BIG DIVISIONAL HOME DOGS
TD-plus divisional home dogs that are home off a road dog loss are a bad play during the first 10 weeks of the season but from Wk 11-16 they are hitting better than 60-percent. Any team who is home off a loss is looking to set things right in front of their home fans and what better time to do it than against a division rival. There’s a good chance this is the second meeting of the season and the fact our home team is a huge dog who is coming off a dog loss indicates the likelihood of this being a revenge game. Whether the previous loss to this rival occurred earlier this year or last year, or has perhaps been going on for a couple years, the home team in these games is running of things to play for. Today’s game is the chance to play spoiler, earn some respect from the fans and coaches, and send a message to your opponent that next year is going to be different. Our big dog play for this week is on the Vikings and we booked it early and the week at +10 – All Pick Sixty Sports ‘Early Buys’ are posted at Facebook or on Twitter along with the EveryEdge sports betting forum!
PACKERS at VIKINGS
Line: Green Bay -9 and 49.5
Teddy Bridgewater finally gets his chance to face to Packers after sitting out the first meeting with a bum ankle. Minnesota gave up eight and five sacks in two games against Detroit and Buffalo who rank eighth and first overall is the sack department, but three games since Buffalo held the Bucs, Skins and Bears to two or less which is around average for those teams. Green Bay averages 2.5 sacks per game and they’ve only had more than three twice this year, divisional home games against Minnesota and Chicago. It’s worth noting that two of Green Bay’s best three QB sack games from 2013 were also home divisional games. Since 2010, Green Bay has six divisional home games with four-plus QB sacks but only two on the road.
The Vikings are allowing 22 PPG and they got lit by some explosive offenses three times in the first five weeks of the season (NE, ATL and GB). But this is HC Mike Zimmer’s first year with the team. He is a defensive minded coach but it takes time for some of the systems to set in. He’s also had to use three starting QBs and found out in Wk 2 that his all-pro RB was suddenly out of the picture. This is a home game and for a rookie head coach and that generally leads to lower scores. If Minny can hold GB to 27, the question is whether they can score 17 or more and make this a cover. Given the circumstances, I think they can and home dogs between 6 and 10 points off a game where they gave up more than 300 passing yards are 34-21 ATS in the SportsDatabase.com history banks. We have the Vikings staying close enough in this game to get the cover.
Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the Vikings