Trends with Benefits: Week 11 NFL Betting

Top trends and sports betting tips from Sunday’s late games starting with an Over/Under prediction for the San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins.

 

Dogs are barking loud and clear with early scores in Houston, Jacksonville and Chicago to start the day but it’s time to update the odds on the late NFL betting card and point out a few trends and sports betting systems worth considering.

 

SAN DIEGO at MIAMI

Odds: Chargers -2.5 and O/U 44.5

West coast teams who play in the Eastern Time Zone at 4 pm (or later) don’t get as much attention as the true ‘Early Bodyclock’ (EBC) starters that go at 1 pm ET but talk to players and they will all tell you that they still notice the impact. Stats show stronger output for the EBC offenses in the first-half (12.7 PPG) than the second (10.2 PPG) and the defense wears down, home sides will start to show higher offensive output in the second-half (12.6 PPG) than they could muster in the first (11.8). The Over/Under record since 1996 for all teams in this spot is 32-20-1 O/U.

[quote_text color=”#000000″ text_color=”#ffffff”]San Diego allows 280 passing yards per game, fifth-most in the league through 10 weeks[/quote_text]

At 8.0 yards per pass, the Chargers allow more yards through the air per attempt than any other team in the league and that number increases to 8.8 when playing on the road. Miami’s O-line is influx but they’ve had time to adjust since their Monday Night Football loss to Tampa and at home, should be able to get QB Ryan Tannehill some protection. The Chargers have played 10-straight overs vs. teams off a Monday nighter and each of these teams will look to air it out today in what should be a real fireworks show.

Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the OVER

 

Research your own NFL trends and betting angles free at SportsDatabase.com and stop by the Google Chat Room to discuss winning picks and strategies with like minded bettors!

 

GREEN BAY at NY GIANTS

Odds: Giants -3.5 and O/U 41

The Packers are catching some gameday action that’s helped move this line down from a high of -4.5. The total is also down from 42.5 and the latest forecast is 65 degrees, a chance of rain and light winds around 8 mph. This is Scott Tolzien’s first career start and that should mean a heavy workload for RB Eddie Lacy but with the number of weapons on Green Bay’s offense and HC Mike McCarthy’s play calling ability, don’t expect the Packers to abandon the passing game altogether.

[quote_text color=”#000000″ text_color=”#ffffff”]Green Bay has played “Under” six consecutive times on the road following back-to-back home games[/quote_text]

Given’s New York’s situation, their offense will likely take shots against a Packers D who are tied for the third fewest takeaways per game (0.8) and faves this season are 27-13-1 O/U (68-percent) when facing a team who has lost two or more straight games. Tom Coughlin is a master vs. rookie QBs and the Giants didn’t need much to get past Oakland, Philly or Minnesota so this total could hinge on Tolzien’s success. There is a lot at stake for both of these teams and often times in November, high stakes + 2 veteran coaches = low scoring.

Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the UNDER

We’ve covered the San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints game in “Office Pools, Best Bets and NFL Picks for Week 11”. Check that out and make sure you stop by the Pick Sixty Facebook page for updates and our Sunday Night Football picks for Kansas City at Denver