Trends with Benefits: Week 11 NFL Betting Tips

Best bets from the Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers along with our Totally Covered play of the week from Cincinnati and Arizona!

My NFL card consists of two sides and two totals today, building on the success of a modest two-week winning streak. Through the first 10 weeks of the season, my Totally Covered Over/Under picks have gone 7-5 while the Trends with Benefits feature is hitting 7-8-1 ATS. Essentially, it’s been a whole lot of treading water and I’m optimistic about the second-half. When I look back to my early years of football betting in the early 90’s, and think of how nice it would have been to be sitting a .500 with Thanksgiving Day around the corner, it helps put things in perspective.

Everyone has heard the saying, “NFL wagering is a marathon, not a sprint.” And I’m a true believer in those words. With all the upsets, funny bounces and suspicious calls, you can’t let one game define your season. Here’s a quick write on two of today’s top picks.


Line: Carolina -7 and O/U 44.5

Carolina has Dallas on-deck and the Panthers have lost five-straight to the Cowboys since 2003. They’ve only beaten Dallas twice in franchise history and they are 1-4 in Dallas, the win coming in 1997. This seems like a lot more of a look-ahead spot than last week’s so called ‘trap game’ at Tennessee, but HC Ron Rivera seems to have this team focused on every game.

The Panthers have taken down the Redskins three-straight times since 2009, and held them to 20 points or less seven-straight times since 2000. All of Carolina’s wins over Washington were mid-season, by smallish margins (only one was double-digits) and the “Under” has been the most consistent play by far. Playing away from home, I suspect it is Washington that will trouble finding the end zone and in what should be a lower scoring game, look for Carolina to dominate.

Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the Panthers


Line: Arizona -4.5 and O/U 48.5

This is quite the matchup, with Cinci playing on the short week off an upset loss to Houston and the Cards on ‘letdown’ alert following their huge divisional win at Seattle. NFL teams that started their season with five or more consecutive wins are 7-13 ATS following their first loss, when facing a team with a winning record on the season. See for yourself with the following code at Sports Database:

SDQL Text: tS(W) > 4 and tS(L) = 1 and p:L and o:WP >= 50

Bengals QB Andy Dalton was sacked three times by Houston and the Cards have a 12-4 ATS record the past three years vs. teams that failed to protect their quarterback. In seven home games, the Cardinals went 5-2 SU/ATS. The Bengals have also registered three sacks in their past three consecutive games and when the Cards face a stiff pass rush, they are 2-6 O/U the past while, getting outscored 20-15 on average. Not one of these eight games finished with more than 44 points. Given the scheduling situation (Cards have another divisional game on-deck), and the fact each of these teams can play strong D, I bet the under as my top play on this game.

TC Pick of the Week: Bengals & Cards UNDER

Check out this week’s NFL Handicapping Report for five more picks from Dr. Ed Meyer and Sportsbook Breakers, along with 100-plus SDQL trends from every matchup!