Trends with Benefits: Week 11 NFL Betting Tips

Top trends, systems and sports betting tips featuring the SDQL at Sports Database

One of the subjects we touched on this week in NFL Tips & Totals at the KillerSports.com Handicapping Report was teams that incorporate a running back by committee (RBBC) approach to their offense. Often borne out of necessity from an injury or inefficiency, this type of situation is one you can identify and use as a building block while analyzing a game.

The Jaguars, Bucs, Vikings, Packers and Texans are the “live” RBBC teams in Week 11 and for Trends With Benefits, we’re going to focus on the Arizona vs. Minnesota contest.

CARDINALS AT VIKINGS

Line: Minnesota -1.5 and O/U 40

Vikings RB Jerick McKinnon led the Vikings with 16 rushing yards during last week’s loss to Washington. Read that sentence again. Asiata, Thielen, Line and Hillman made up the rest of Minny’s paltry total (47 RY) and that makes the Vikings a “live” RBBC team in Week 11.

Home teams lined from +1 to -3 in this spot are a small fade (29-39-1 ATS) but the big value is on the total. Using any Over/Under range, type of surface or ‘rest’, the record for RBBC teams in this spot is 45-21-3 O/U (68% OVER). See for yourself with the following SDQL link:

SDQL: 2 * max:p:RY < p:RY and H and p:AL and -3 <= line <= 1

When the visiting team is off a home win, like the Cardinals, the record is 23-3 O/U. Arizona struggled to find a rhythm early this year but they had a bye in Week 9 and come back with divisional win over this Niners. They are a better team than their .500 record indicates and we have to remember, this team won 13 games in 2015.

Teams that won a huge number of games the previous year often go up against some tough lines in the early part of the season and if they don’t play up to the same standard (which is almost impossible to do), they start moving into ‘dog status’, especially on the road.

SDQL: PRSW > 12 and 10 <= month <= 11 and AD and 36 < total < 46 and rest > 5

With lower totals we are seeing some nice value on these teams to play “Over” in October-November, the database record showing 31-14-1 O/U. Good coaches know they need to shake things up and the opposing team also knows they’ve got a talented squad coming in. It’s always good protecting the home front against one of the league’s top teams from last year, regardless of their current record. The dog that’s travelling needs a minimum six days rest so no TNF and no p:MNF. Home team’s rest is not a factor.

Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the Cards at Vikings OVER

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