We analyze a NFL Over/Under system that is 17-4-1 O/U on the season and live on two matchups including Sunday’s game between the Broncos and Saints!
Throughout the season I like to run various scenarios through our free Sports Database pertaining to matchups that are “live” that week, just to get an idea of what’s being considered by oddsmakers as they set the lines. One statistic I considered for Monday’s Buffalo at Seattle matchup was ‘Yards per point Differential’ and it lined up with the rest of my notes supporting an “Over” play.
The game cleared by half-time and that improved the record this year to 17-4-1 O/U. Running the SDQL system again this week identified two matchups but the first thing I thing I wanted to do was look through the four unders to see if I could spot characteristics that would help make or break the decision on whether or not to play a game.
Traits of an “Under” Play
1. Road Team has a Great D; See Wk 3-16, MIN at CAR (UN 42.5)
When it was healthy, early in the season en route to a 5-0 start, the Vikes D were not giving up much space to anyone. They also won the TO battle in each of their five wins and when you force TOs and then hand the ball over to your weak offense, the UN is safe.
2. Road Team has a Great O-Line; See Wk 6-16, DAL at GB (UN 47)
The Cowboys OL ranks No. 1 in my ratings and they lead the league in rushing (by a 10-RYPG margin). GB’s DFS ranks No. 1 in my ratings and they have a huge HFA. The DAL offense is being run by a r-QB and r-RB and the HC knows he has an avg D. The mission here is ‘Get in and get out’ and that’s the recipe for a UN.
3. Home Team has a Bad Offense; See Wk 5-16, WSH at BLT (UN 45)
Build this state rivalry up anyway you want, it’s still just a non-conference matchup. The Redskins have long struggled on the road and the Ravens offense had major issues early this year, as evidenced by the fact they fired their O-Co in Wk 6 (after this game). Note that both of these teams rank in the 20’s for overall Intex but the key here is not how strong your rating is, it’s the fact that your rating is better than the opponent’s.
4. Home Team has a Great Defense; See Wk 2-16; TB at ARI (UN 49.5)
There are a couple underlying factors at play in this game as well. TB was on the road for a second-straight week (travel factor), they were coming off an upset win (letdown factor), and the win was over a division rival whereas this is just a conference game (priority factor). The main point of this game, though, is that ARI has one of the top front sevens and top overall D’s in the league. TB has an up and coming offense but their QB is second-year and their offensive minded HC is a rookie. Complete mismatch of competition here and the outcome (40-7 Cards) reinforces the theory.
WEEK 10 TWIB NOTES
The two games “live” this week are Chiefs at Panthers and Broncos at Saints. Each of these road teams has a good, if not great D. DEN is great when healthy but they have two starters out on the DL and secondary. KC is only ranked 11th on the year but they dealt with injuries early in the season and are just getting back to health now. Moving up the ranks.
On the fourth point (home D), CAR is like KC (up and coming) but NOR ranks in the mid-20’s. They have a strong O-Line and QB, and their run game (16th overall) has averaged more than 150 RYPG in the past three. This game actually has some similarities to the SD at ATL and GB at ATL games from Wks 7-8. Each of those games had totals in the low 50’s and finished with more than 60 points apiece.
DEN is playing its second-straight road game and this is non-conference but they are off a loss. It’s an inexperienced QB playing in a loud building and his run game has been sideswiped by injuries but the O-Line looks it will have all five starters on the field.
BRONCOS AT SAINTS
Line: Saints -3 and O/U 49.5
This total has shot up from 48 early in the week as the Broncos limp towards their bye week. New Orleans has a road game at Carolina on-deck and the Saints are 7-2 SU and 6-2-1 ATS in this spot since HC Sean Payton took over, going 6-3 O/U. NOR has averaged 33 points in those nine games. Here’s a list of those games:
Drew Brees and the Saints are not the type of team that looks past the defending Super Bowl champs, renowned for their great D, when they have a good shot to beat up on them. Saw this TT at 26.5 at one book but 24.5 at another. Jumped on it.
Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the Saints Team Total OVER 24.5 points