Trends with Benefits: Week 1 NFL Betting Tips

Top trends and sports betting tips from Sunday’s late game between the Miami Dolphins and Seattle Seahawks!

As the football betting world settles in to the first full NFL Sunday in 252 days, the Miami Dolphins are wondering how in the world they got stuck opening the season on the road vs. a non-conference opponent that houses one of the league’s best defenses. Guess they figure, “Hey, Adam Gase is a rookie head coach — let’s throw him to the wolves!”


Line: Seahawks -10.5 and O/U 43.5

There’s been some downward pressure on this total from bettors who feel the Dolphins will have trouble scoring more than 13 points. Fact is, the team totals for this contest are Miami O/U 17 and Seattle O/U 27.5, so books seem to think the Fish will have a play or two up their sleeves.

Miami’s O-Line ranks 21st overall and while that’s still better than Seattle (26th), the Dolphins are playing without starting center Mike Pouncey (hip). That puts a lot of pressure on QB Ryan Tannehill and Anthony Steen, who has seen very limited action in two years with Arizona.

Seattle is missing its first round pick Germain Ifedi but QB Russell Wilson is in his comfort zone having to make things happen behind shoddy blocking. They have multiple O-Line combos to work with and it looks like RBs Rawls and Michael are ready to go. Add in Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett, Jimmy Graham and Luke Willson, and well, you get the picture. Seattle is going to put up some numbers.

Miami was a blowout victim in several games last season and they are “live” in a profile that’s produced 33 overs, 20 unders and a push since 1989 (62-percent OVER). Check the Trend Mart for details.

The Dolphins are 15-3 ATS in the first of a two-game road trip including a 4-2 O/U record as a dog of more than +3 points. Check numbers for this team trend at the free Sports Database with SDQL text: team = Dolphins and A and n:A and n:week = week + 1 and date >= 20081221

They’ve only scored 21 points in those six games but they allow 30. These are teams like the Jets, Giants, Cards, Broncos, Pats and Bills. In the duration of this profile those teams have averaged a collective 24 PPG and they exceeded that average by 25-percent. Seattle’s scoring average = 23.2 PPG. View the entire list of teams with SDQL: tA(points) @ team and season>2008

Seattle is 17-9-1 ATS at home before a divisional road game and they have a huge on-deck with the Los Angeles Rams. Games with a total greater than 43, the Hawks went 4-1 SU/ATS and 3-2 O/U. Bottom line is, the Hawks will be playing to win this game and they’re going to score in the ballpark of 25-30 points. My power ratings suggest the Hawks as one of the strongest plays on the board so given the info, I’m suggesting we lay the points.

Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the Seahawks

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