Trends with Benefits: Week 1 NFL Betting

Top trends and sports betting tips from Sunday’s late games around the league!

Seven games are underway but the league did a nice job this year ensuring we wouldn’t be stuck with just three games later. Of the five that kickoff just after 4 pm ET, here are some sports betting trends to keep in mind backed by the powerful SDQL database from Killer Sports.

SAINTS at CARDINALS

Line: Arizona -2.5 and O/U 48

It’s not often you see a New Orleans total bet down but that’s exactly what’s happened here. As of Wednesday, this total was available at 48.5 for under bettors. The Saints have played a lot of high-total road games since 2009 and their record (O/U 50-plus) is 12-10-1 O/U with games averaging 53.1 points. That’s a lot, but maybe not as much as you would have guessed.

When the totals were less than O/U 50, New Orleans is 14-14-1 O/U since 2009 but the past two years, 10 games have only gone 2-7-1 O/U with average total points of just 41.2 per game. Check the chart with this SDQL code from SportsDatabase.com: team = Saints and season >= 2013 and A and total < 50

It seems the books are still charging “Over” bettors a premium based on days gone by but the trends don’t support and I don’t think the Arizona Cardinals defense will stand for it. 

Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the UNDER

TITANS at BUCCANEERS

Line: Tampa Bay -3 and O/U 41

As we said in our Totally Covered Over/Under feature, the Bucs + home + early season = Under (check system). This total opened at 42.5 and it’s been bought down to 41. Current weather in T-Bay says 83 degrees but with the 78-percent humidity, that’s probably feeling closer to 90.

We’ve got two highly touted rookie QBs making their first career starts and while their future looks bright, it might be a bit optimistic to think they are going to take two of the most anaemic offenses from 2014 and suddenly turn them into scoring dynamos. Recent “superstar” QBs making their first start (Newton, RG3, Stafford, Tannehill, Bortles, Bridgewater) averaged 17.5 points per game in thier first start. Times that by two and we’ve got this one staying comfortably under the total.

Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the UNDER

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