Pick Sixty’s NFL betting feature has been providing winning systems and picks all season long and today we feature the AFC showdown between the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots
New England’s offense can’t hope to put up the same kind of numbers they used to. No Gronk, no Hernandez and very little playoff experience for the wideouts. The run game’s latest boost came through LeGarrette Blount but the Colts will see him coming a mile away. Bill Belichick may look to mount some sustained drives and control the clock but Indy’s D will be tough and if they can make a few stops, Andrew Luck and the Colts can play the same game.
This line has looked too high all week long and we lean towards the Colts covering but rather than fade the great Tom Brady at home, our stats uncovered another play that we feel gives us a better chance of collecting the cash: Take the Colts Team Total OVER 20.5 (-130) at Pinnacle Sports
New England is rested but their defensive ranking has slipped this season from 15th to 24th. Each of these teams ranks worse against the rush than the pass and with foul weather expected, this game sets up like a potential “Under” play but with a total of 48 or more, conference home faves of -7 or more are 11-5 O/U in the playoffs. ATS line aside, when the road team comes in on a streak of three-straight wins (or more), the past eight games in SportsDatabase.com history show a record of 7 overs and 1 under.
We note that six of those seven overs were played indoors but Indy’s run game, Luck included, could generate some nice drives for a Colts team whose gameplan had to consist of scoring plenty of points vs. this caliber of competition. Since 2010, this round had produced 11 overs and 1 under (Saints-Seahawks game pending).
In the Pats’ last seven games they were 5-2 O/U but New England only scored 7.6 first-half PPG (and 22 PPG in the second-half). Their big breakout game was against the Ravens but turnovers aided that one and Indy was +9 in turnovers the five games before KC (-3). New England only gave up 9.6 first-half PPG and not one of those seven games went to the break with more than 24 total points scored (the first-half total is 26.5) so we backed off the first-half wagering lines.
LIVE SDQL BETTING SYSTEM: OVER
NFL teams have played 30 overs, 8 unders and 2 unders the past eight seasons as road dogs of more than TD immediately following a game where they achieved three times as many passing yards as rushing yards. Trailing by double-digits at half-time last week vs. Kansas City, Indy’s passing game opened up and they finished with 436 passing yards to 100 yards on the ground.
NFL TREND TIPS
The Pats have not fared well vs. mobile QBs the past couple years (1-3 SU/ATS) and all four opponents scored at least 24 points. New England has a terrible ATS record in the playoffs starting with their last meeting against the Colts in 2007 (2-9 ATS). The Pats were perfect at home during the regular season but playoff teams in that role have not performed well over the years, going 9-18 ATS (2-9 ATS last 11). Pick Sixty’s Trend Tips predicted a side and total for last week’s San Francisco at Green Bay playoff game and this week we will ride with the Colts’ Team Total OVER. Good luck and enjoy the game!