Totally Covered – Week 9 Picks: Packers at Panthers

The Green Bay Packers are a perfect 7-0 ATS on the road off a road loss, but Carolina’s improvements on both sides of the ball will make for a tough matchup

Last year, Carolina went into Lambeau Field off a tie against Cinci and the Pack wasted little time grabbing a huge lead. By the end of the first, it was 21-0 Green Bay and the rout was on. Carolina had just played a full five quarters of football against the Bengals and it was an intense game (37-37 final). GB was also their third road game in four weeks and the fatigue started to show.

So far this year, no team has scored more than three points against Carolina in the first quarter and no team has scored more than seven against them in the second quarter. The caliber of competition in Week’s 1-4 was pretty low and overall, the Panthers D has faced the sixth easiest set of offenses. The Packers are a Top 5 offense and their D ranks seventh overall, but this time the Pack are playing on the road for a second-straight week and Carolina has revenge on their mind.

Carolina +3 looks like a good option for this game but I’m hesitant backing home teams off back-to-back home wins. Greg Dempson dubbed this system, “Too Much Home Cooking” back in his Winner’s Edge days, and the home teams are generally a 65-percent ATS play AGAINST.

Home teams are overvalued in their third of three-straight home games when they won the first two, going 4-12 ATS since 2008. In 2014, the home team was 2-2 ATS in this spot and both ATS wins were revenge games with tight lines that went “Over” by double-digits. The past eight consecutive ‘Revenge’ games in this angle have played OV by an avg of 8 PPG. Each team has averaged 26 PPG in those eight and the line was within +/- 3 points of ‘Pick’ in six of eight.

Eight of the 15 ‘Revenge’ games in this profile finished with fewer than 47 points and the scoring average for all 15 games is 47.5 total points. Note: CAR (27 PPG) is the highest scoring home team in this profile. The other three that averaged 24-plus PPG = 3-0 O/U.

Can Carolina get to 23 points today? They averaged 21 PPG in 2014 (19 at home), and so far this year they are averaging 27 PPG (27 at home). They have faced some much weaker D’s than GB (three of four ranked in 23rd or worse; GB is 7th), but in games where the opposing team’s offense averaged 27-plus PPG (GB), the totals went 7-1 O/U.

The Pack have scored 30 or more against Carolina four consecutive games since 2007, so as much as Carolina would like to avoid a shootout, they may not have full control of that option. GB only has six sacks thier past three games so Cam is going to find his yards, and road teams off the Broncos this year are giving up 28 PPG. The only fave was Baltimore, when they were still relatively healthy on offense (Wk 2), and they lost a shootout 37-33 at Oakland.

In conference road games against winning teams with a road game on-deck, GB has scored an avg of 33 PPG and the Pack are 6-1 O/U away off a loss vs. a winning team. All six overs finished in the 50’s or higher.

The Panthers beat the Colts last week on MNF. Home teams have a solid straight-up record in this spot and the past four years, they are on an 11-2 SU, 9-3-1 ATS run with 10 overs and 3 unders (34 PPG scored). The ‘Too Much Home Cooking’ profile also has a star for home teams off a marquee matchup: Home teams wrapping a three-game homestand off a MNF game have outscored their opponents 29-18 on average, with only one of nine teams scoring fewer than 22 points.

TC Pick of the Week: Take the Panthers Team Total OVER 22 points

Totally Covered is written by Jarvis Simes, lead handicapper at Pick Sixty Sports. Follow us on Twitter for more NFL picks, winning systems and Best Bets throughout the season!