Totally Covered – Week 8 NFL Picks

My top Over/Under play for Sunday along with two bets consider from this week’s Power Ratings

Running a bit late today with my writeup and I apologize for that. Guess the old ‘time change’ excuse that I used for years with my parents just started to become a habit. Happy November everyone; here’s to good month.

BENGALS at STEELERS

Line: Pittsburgh -1 and O/U 48.5

This game has had a lot of hype all week and most of surrounded Ben Roethlisberger returning from injury. Big Ben has some amazing weapons and I think the biggest challenge for Cinci will be defending against RB Le’Veon Bell. The Bengals are still not regarded as a top 10 defense in my power ratings, but they are better than Pittsburgh. The extra prep time is a huge benefit for Cinci on both sides of the ball and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see each of these teams eclipse their team total of 24.

That projection qualifies this game for my old Pittsburgh 23 system and against the division, this angle is 44-13 O/U. Big Ben is also 10-1 O/U his last 11 against elite teams and 12-6-1 O/U vs. teams on a hot streak. The Steelers are playing their first of three-straight home games here and last year, teams in this spot played over eight of 10 times. When the total is O/U 44 or more, the record since the start of 2013 is 12-4 O/U. I paid to get this total down to 48 and Pinnacle has the best price. Weather shouldn’t be an issue.

TC Pick of the Week: Take the Bengals at Steelers OVER

POWER RATING PICKS

The Pick Sixty PR plays went 3-0 ATS in last week’s Totally Covered and the season record for posted plays is now 8-2-1 ATS. Lines have moved against some of top rated plays this week so I’m going to suggest a teaser. If you don’t like teasers, good for you, but they are a lot fun. Note: My overall record for teasers this year is 7-7.

Take Arizona, Atlanta and St. Louis in a three-team, 7-point teaser ($150 pays $180)

For a flat bet: Take the Tennessee Titans with all the points you can find (I’ve got them winning this game straight-up)

Read our NFL Handicapping Report each week, published on Thursday’s. It has info on every game along with writeups on our top picks!