Totally Covered – Week 7 NFL Picks

Our top totals are 4-0 the past two weeks and 5-3 on the season. Today we have a Best Bet from the Browns at Rams along with three power rating picks to consider

The St. Louis Rams are fresh off a bye week and getting ready for a big divisional matchup next week against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 8. First, the Rams must take care of this Browns team who have won only two games, but given a lot of teams more trouble than they were bargaining for. Sunday NFL odds for this game are St. Louis -6 and O/U 42.

Cleveland has scored 23.5 points per game (PPG) this season but their D ranks 27th. They are 32nd in run stop and their defensive front seven is one of the worst overall (25th). Other than seven QB sacks vs. Tennessee in Week 2, the Browns have just three sacks in five other games. No pressure is going to give Nick Foles all the time he needs to pick this defense apart.

The Browns are missing two starting DBs (Haden and Gipson) and they are also banged up on the D-Line. It sounds like TE Gary Barnidge will play, though. St. Louis could be without starting DE Chris Long and LB Alec Ogletree but on offense, Todd Gurley and Tavon Austin will go. Gurley was quiet in his home debut against Pittsburgh (Week 3) but in two games since, he rushed 19 times for 146 yards (Cards) and 30 for 159 (Packers). This should be a big day for him.

Cleveland beat the Ravens in OT two weeks back and then lost to home at Denver six days ago. When losing teams off back-to-back close games play on the road, they are 22-6-1 O/U if the line is in the low- to mid-40’s. As long as their opponent does not have a perfect record, the mark goes to 22-4-1 O/U, with games clearing the total by double-digits.

With a 2-3 SU record,St. Louis can’t afford to be looking past the Browns this week. This game is a good chance for them to even their record and wash away the bad taste of that 12-6 home loss to the Steelers. HC Jeff Fisher is 11-9 ATS off a bye week with 14 overs and 6 unders. As a fave of -4 or more, he went 5-2 O/U and at home, he was was 5-3 O/U. Also, when the total was more than 41, Fisher’s teams had a record of 5-1 O/U.

Note: In four games when Fisher came off the bye to face a non-divisional team and had a divisional foe on-deck, he was 3-1 SU/ATS and 3-1 O/U, scoring 28 PPG. (Side note: Bye or no bye, Fisher was 34-26-1 O/U in that spot with HOU/TEN).

TC Pick of the Week: Browns and Rams OVER 42 points


Our posted power rating picks are 5-2-1 ATS this season and at -6 points or less, the Rams qualify as a play for this week. Two other PR dogs to consider: Take the Jets +7.5 and the Raiders +4.

Totally Covered is written by Jarvis Simes, lead handicapper at Pick Sixty Sports. Follow us on Twitter for more NFL picks, winning systems and Best Bets throughout the season!

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