Our NFL totals were 4-1 last week and today we’ve got solid lines booked on two games including the Cincinnati Bengals and Indianapolis Colts
Today’s NFL odds for one of the hot-ticket early starts between the Bengals and Colts are following a predictable pattern with a gameday move towards the home fave and the over. The latest odds show the Colts at -3 with a price and the total is up to 50.5. Indy has turned into a QB sack machine the past four weeks, hauling down 16 would be passers and with their top rated offense, it seems like this home game will be a great opportunity for the Colts to nail down their fifth win. After handicapping the numbers we felt the better play was on the total and here is why:
The past couple years, home faves off a divisional road win (Colts) have been forced to reel back their gameplan and the net result is a lower scoring game (40.4 points average). These games have stayed under the total at a rate of 82-percent and you can get a complete analysis of this NFL betting profile at SportsDatabase.com.
Cinci’s defense did not look sharp the past two weeks and database history shows a record of 12 overs and 25 unders when the Bengals play on the road following a home game where they allowed more than 27 points. See for yourself by clicking the following SDQL text: team = Bengals and A and p:H and po:points > 27).
This total is at the high end of post-overtime NFL system that has produced 1 over and 17 unders since 2010. Patience has paid with this contest and right now you can get the total at ‘51’ for -120 or less. Make sure you buy the hook here as ‘51’ has been the second-most landed on number since 2007 (77 times). The most common number is ‘44’ (78 times), exactly one converted touchdown below our key number.
TC Pick: Take the Bengals and Colts UNDER 51 points
MIAMI at CHICAGO
NFL Odds: Bears -3 and O/U 48.5
For an offensive minded coach, Miami’s Joe Philbin has been an extremely conservative game planner since taking over in Miami. Granted, Ryan Tannehill is a step down from Aaron Rodgers but regardless, the Dolphins have scored only 17.2 points on the road since 2012 and yards won’t come easy against this Bears defense. Look for Miami to get the ball into RB Lamar Miller’s hands early to try and wear down the front seven and open up the passing lanes. Miami’s defense is a solid group and they’ll be faced with plenty of action up front from Matt Forte so the last thing Philbin wants to do is send his offense out for short possession three-and-outs. That would put his defense and a great disadvantage and hailing from the NFC North, Philbin already knows how tough the conditions can be at Soldier Field.
On the road, Miami is 2-8 O/U vs. run-oriented offenses and we’ve got a profile for highly penalized home favorites (Chicago) that has hit 60-percent to the under with more than 120 plays in the past eight seasons. The first-half “Under” 24 is worth a look and for our second play we’ll go with the full game to stay under the number.
TC Pick: Take the Dolphins and Bears UNDER 48.5 points