Totally Covered: Week 7 NFL Over/Under Picks

Trends and predictions from the Chargers at Falcons plus our SDQL system of the week!

The scoring is going fast and furious in more than half of the early games today and it will need to continue later if the Chargers and Falcons hope to topple their massive total in Atlanta.

SAN DIEGO AT ATLANTA

Line: Falcons -5.5 and O/U 52.5

This total opened at 51.5 and was bet as high as 54.5 by Saturday but surprisingly, it has taken an about face on game day with some books dropping as low as 52.5 (Pinnacle Sportsbook).

San Diego (2-4 SU) are coming off a Thursday night win over the Broncos so they’ve had extra prep and catch a break with Eastern time zone game starting a 4:05 pm rather than 1 pm. The Bolts have an incredible road record vs. teams with a better W/L percentage but Atlanta is averaging 33 points per game. The Falcs are 1-1 at home and their last appearance in front of the faithful, QB Matt Ryan passed for more than 500 yards.

With a road game between such a stunning statistical performance, home teams in this spot are 20-11 ATS with 12 overs, 18 unders and a push. Faves of -3 or more are 16-6 ATS and since 2006, that record improves to 13-2 SU/ATS. None of these trends suggest the game will break 53 points but teams off a Thursday nighter have been a solid “Over” play in all games with higher totals. This angle is 3-1 O/U in 2016 and on a 7-1 O/U run since midway through 2015. Road games with totals greater than 51 are 7-2 O/U.

It seems like a tall hill to climb but handicapping these games through the week is like climbing a mountain and right now, we can see the summit. All we need is QB Phil Rivers to do his thing against the Falcons’ 27th ranked defense and this one should crack 60.

TC Pick of the Week: Take the Chargers – Falcons OVER

SDQL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK: BUCS at 49ers

Tampa Bay is off a bye and the early line for this game seemed to be speculating that RB Martin would return but he’s still hampered. RB Rodgers will get the start and he was effective against Carolina in Week 5 (30 carries for 101 yards). Things should only get better for Rodgers here, as SF ranks dead last in RYPC allowed (5.0). Note that the Panthers were tied for second in that category at 3.3.

WR Cecil Shorts is active, WR V-JAX is done for the year and WR Evans will lead the team with TE Brate and WR Humphries as secondary targets. This total is down to 45 and the Niners are favored by -2 points. With a rest advantage, the Bucs qualify for this system that’s produced 63-percent ATS winners on almost 100 plays (60-37-1 ATS).

SDQL: A and tA(TY) > 335 and tA(o:sacks) < 2.5 and rest > o:rest and rest > 7 and surface = grass

The system says to play ON road teams that average more than 335 total yards on offense and do a good job protecting their quarterback. The road team has scored more than 22 points 59 of 98 times (59-percent).

Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the Bucs Team Total Over 22.5 points

Totally Covered is written by Jarvis Simes, lead handicapper at Pick Sixty Sports. Follow @PickSixtySports for more winning systems, free NFL picks and Best Bets throughout the season!

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