Totally Covered – Week 6 NFL Picks

Two Over/Under predictions from Sunday’s NFL card including the divisional matchup between the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions returned from their Week 4 road trip to the west coast with a sense of optimism. They had battled hard against the Seattle Seahawks but came up just short with an untimely red zone turnover. That optimism was snuffed out early in last Sunday’s game against the Cardinals and by half-time, the Lions trailed 28-7. When the dust settled it was 42-17 Arizona, marking the fourth week in a row the Lions offense had failed to score more than 17 points.

Chicago comes into this game off one of the biggest pointspread upsets all season and divisional road dogs of +7 or less have a 14-9-1 ATS record, with 17 of those 24 games staying under the total. Check that record at Sports Database with SDQL text: DIV and AD and 1 <= line <= 7 and p:ADW and season >= 2004

Divisional home teams who have had trouble scoring points of late are a good bet to stay under any total and the line on this game (Lions -3, O/U 44.5) suggests a fairly even matchup. When the home team in this spot is coming off a home loss, the record in the past 10 games is 2-7-1 O/U. Neither one of these special teams presents much threat to score points so as the Lions try to take advantage of the weak Chicago front by establishing a sorely needed run game (ranked 32nd), I’m looking for this game to stay under the total.

TC Pick of the Week: Bears at Lions UNDER 44.5

TC Tip: On normal rest, teams in a back-to-back road spot are hitting more than 60-percent ATS when they have an advantage over their opponent for average third down efficiency. That applies this week to the Bears (+4), Redskins (+7) and Patriots (-9).

TEXANS at JAGUARS

Odds: Jacksonville ‘Pick’ and O/U 43

The ATS betting line this week is actually moving toward the Jags, which obviously means that either the Titans Texans must be in town. In the past three years, Jacksonville is 9-2 ATS against those two division rivals and 9-24 ATS against all other teams.

Home field hasn’t provided the Jags with any notable advantage of late — they are 6-20 SU since going 4-4 SU in the 2011 season — but the Jags did win thier last home game (Week 2, Miami) and after going 0-3 in their recent road trip to New England, Indy and Tampa, a little home cooking can’t hurt.

This is a brief stop and the Jags are off to their second home in London next week to face the Bills. I’m looking at this game and thinking, “Gus Bradley had to have this one circled as a huge game to win — just like TB had last week’s game circled to beat the Jags.”

Houston has been unreliable for points all season (19.4 PPG) but there are signs of hope. QB Brian Hoyer has wrestled back the starting spot from an inconsistent Ryan Mallett, and Arian Foster is 100-percent after missing the first three games with a groin injury. Texans LB Jadeveon Clowney (ankle) and S Quintin Demps (hamstring) are out and the Jags could be missing rooking RB TJ Yeldon (groin). Less Yeldon = more passing game, and it helps big time having Julius Thomas in the lineup.

TC Pick: Take the Texans and Jaguars OVER

Totally Covered is written by Jarvis Simes, lead handicapper at Pick Sixty Sports. Follow us on Twitter for more NFL picks, winning systems and Best Bets throughout the season!