Betting tips for Sunday’s action including a Best Bet from the Houston Texans and Atlanta Falcons game!
Having a 9:30 am kickoff in the Eastern time zone this week (Jets, Phins) reminded me of what it was like having to set an alarm every Sunday morning on the West coast to make sure I had all my pre-game notes in order. The Jets are taking a 20-7 lead into the half as I write this and it seems like most of the players have adjusted well to the extended travel. Big hits, lots of energy and a few big plays on offense; well, by the Jets anyway.
It has certainly come a long way from that 13-10 Giants win over the Dolphins in 2007, the first game of the London series. Good weather helps, and maybe the fact this is the first divisional game overseas has placed an added emphasis on this game. Just a few things to keep in mind for later this year when handicapping the Bills vs. Jags (Week 7) and Lions vs. Chiefs (Week 8) games from England.
TEXANS at FALCONS
The line for this game opened at Atlanta -5 and peaked at -6.5 until Texan money started coming in. Over/Under odds have been on a slow climb and a few online sportsbooks are currently offering a total of O/U 48. If you haven’t already, it’s time to buy.
Julio Jones (hamstring) is a full-go, Devonta Freeman will try be trying to build on last week’s breakout performance and although Arian Foster is expected to dress, it remains uncertain how much he’ll play. That means Alfred Blue could get a lot of work rushing against a Falcon front seven ranked fifth against the run while Ryan Mallet tries to end Houston’s string of futility playing indoors on the road. Good luck with that.
Houston played in a dome twice last season and the games ended with 37 and 27 total points. The Texans are 2-16 SU and 3-14-1 ATS in their past 18 dome road games, getting outscored 28-19. They are 1-8-1 ATS in their past 10 and 3-9 O/U thier past 12. Atlanta has given up 24 points per game vs. three NFC East opponents who all rank much higher than the Texans in most categories other than defense. Rookie HC Dan Quinn is happy about being 3-0 but he’s looking to tighten things up defensively and this is a perfect opportunity.
The Texans are 2-11-1 ATS as a dog vs. pass-heavy teams and home faves of -7 or less off back-to-back games with a positive turnover margin are on a 1-10 run to the under. I’ve got the Falcons winning this game handily and my money is on the under. Unfortunately I bought in at 47 but if you shop around, you can find this game at 48 today. I’ll stick with the number I posted on the Pick Sixty Facebook page late last night.
TC Pick of the Week: Texans at Falcons UNDER 47
If anyone is looking for some plays to hookup for later today, consider the totals in Arizona and Denver. I like both games to go over and booked them with the London game, which is obviously gone. One of my early plays this week was on the Jags-Colts UNDER 48, which you would know if you read the Killer Sports Week 4 Newsletter and that total is long gone with the news that Andrew Luck is out but you can still tease it under, if you like. The Colts are “live” in a divisional angle for teams off a divisional game where they gave up 30-plus points. The SportsDatabase.com record on that is 9 overs and 22 unders (71-percent UNDER) since 2011.
Totally Covered is written by Jarvis Simes, lead handicapper at Pick Sixty Sports. Follow us on Twitter for more NFL picks, winning systems and Best Bets throughout the season!