Totally Covered – Week 3: Colts at Jaguars

We scoured the bottom of the NFL betting barrel in Week 3 for our first two totals from Indy at Jacksonville and the Dallas Cowboys vs. St. Louis Rams

The Colts and Jaguars have played some incredibly high scoring football games to start the season but this total still seems high to me. Look at who and where the Colts played: A season opener at Mile High vs. a Peyton Manning led offense that was obliterated in their last real game in front a billion TV viewers. And then a second primetime game against an Eagles team that makes triathlons seem easy. Teams who go “Over” against the Eagles since Chip Kelly took over have not done well the next week out, going 1-9 straight-up and 2-7-1 against the spread. They also allow a ton of points but look at some of the teams who the post-Philly teams played in this sample:

GB on the road

DAL on the road (and it was DEN who was post-Philly) – the game was a 51-48 win for the Broncos (the only SU win)

CHI on the road

ATL on the road

NYG on the road (and it was the Raiders who were post-Philly)

CIN on the road (one of the best home records in football the past couple years)

Packers again… you get the point.

 

Even Washington with Kirk Cousins lit up Jacksonville last week, who were post-Philly and playing their second of back-to-back road games to start the season. Indianapolis may win this game straight-up but we sure wouldn’t suggest taking them in a survivor pool. It’s going to be hot and sunny in Jag-town tomorrow and we are expecting to see a good dose of the run game with the home side standing tough on D in their home opener.

TC Pick of the Week: Take the Colts and Jags UNDER 45.5

COWBOYS at RAMS

NFL Odds: Cowboys -1 and O/U 44

Shaun Hill has been progressing throughout the week but Austin Davis is ready to go if necessary. Davis completed 22 of 29 passes in his first start on the road against Tampa Bay and with Jeff Fisher staring down a bye; we think he’ll be ready to let things fly. DeMarco Murray is getting the press for what everyone things will be a run-heavy gameplan out of Dallas but Tony Romo and Jason Garrett are not the type to sit on their hands against a beatable opponent.

 

When the total is 44 points or more, NFL teams off a narrow win have a record of 9 overs and 2 unders before a bye week and we should note that dogs in this spot are on a 10-2 O/U run since 1997. Weather won’t be a factor in this game and Dallas road games in domes have averaged 48 points since 2006.

TC Pick: Take Cowboys and Rams OVER 44

 

For our top two side plays this week we’re on the Bengals -6 and Patriots -14. Watch for more and follow Pick Sixty on Twitter for updates!