Totally Covered – Week 2: NFL Picks

Over/Under betting stats, Super Bowl Champ systems and matchups supporting this week’s Best Bet between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills knocked off the Colts in their opener but there is no rest for the wicked and this  week, it’s Tom, Gronk and the Hood are in town for Round 1 of this year’s Rex Rivalry series.

In 2009, Rex Ryan and the Jets won a game straight-up against New England in New York and they lost on the road. In 2010, the same thing happened in the regular season but then in the playoffs, Ryan went into Foxboro and took a 14-3 half-time lead before outscoring the Pats 14-10 in the fourth quarter to win 28-10. Since that playoff win, Ryan is 1-7 SU against Bill Belichick.

The passing era began in the NFL and NY’s defense couldn’t keep up. The past eight meetings with the Pats, New York allowed 29 PPG. The offense couldn’t keep up either. NY has only led at the half once against NE in the past eight games (Wk 16, 2014).

The past three years, Ryan is 1-5 SU against NE but he’s 5-1 ATS and after going 0-2 O/U vs. the Pats in 2009, these teams have combined for 9 overs and 2 unders.

Ryan was 9-3 SU/ATS in the second of back-to-back home games with New York but Tom Brady is 10-4 all-time vs. Ryan defenses (25 TD, 8 INT). Brady is 23-3 SU against the Bills including a 11-2 SU, 8-4-1 ATS record at the Ralph. That’s outstanding, but there’s another thing that stands out: Both of the straight-up losses and three of four ATS losses came in the first three weeks of the season (2003, `11 and `13).

We covered this game in our New England Patriots Road Map feature and although the ghosted line favored Buffalo at the time (Garoppolo was projected starter), this game still qualifies for a ‘Super Bowl Champ’ profile that is 76-percent to the “Under” (1-8 O/U with a total higher than 43).

New England is 3-6 O/U in Week 2 divisional road games, outscoring their opponents 21-15 (SDQL Text: team=Patriots and A and week=2 and DIV)

Buffalo is 0-3 O/U in Week 2 divisional home games, outscoring their opponents 21-7 (SDQL Text: team=Bills and H and week=2 and DIV)

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Rex has a new team with a solid defense that’s around the same talent level as the units he was in charge of in New York. Buffalo’s offense has potential but they’ve only played one game with QB Tyrod Taylor and RB LeSean McCoy. Rob Gronkowski is the X-factor in this game but at the current price, it feels like the value is on the under.

TC Pick of the Week: Pats and Bills UNDER 44.5

Totally Covered is written by Jarvis Simes, lead handicapper at Pick Sixty Sports. Follow us on Twitter for more NFL picks, winning systems and Best Bets throughout the season!