Two division foes hookup at the Ralph Sunday with a chance at first place in the AFC East on the line
Of the 11 underdogs raking cash for NFL bettors online last week, the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills were a photo ‘Phin’-ish for biggest Week 1 upset. Miami hauled down the almighty Patriots but they were at home. Buffalo went into Soldier Field and used its three-pronged ground game to drive an overtime stake into the hearts of 62,000 Bears fans. Buffalo led 17-7 at the half and had to maintain its composure while the Dolphins scrambled from a double-digit deficit, outscoring the Pats 23-0 in the final 30 minutes. It’s the fifth time Miami has rallied under HC Joe Philbin (second-straight time against the Pats) and four of the five second-half comebacks were at Sun Life Stadium. The following game Miami has a 1-3 SU/ATS record and the most recent loss was Week 16 in Buffalo when the Fish were stymied 19-0 by a stout Bills D who limited their rival to just 14 yards rushing.
Miami hopes that Knowshon Moreno (shoulder, probable) will spark the run game and he impressed both coaches and fantasy football owners alike in Week 1, but the Bills answer back with a heavy dose of CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson. Anthony Dixon (hamstring) remains on the watch list but consider him Doug Marrone’s secret weapon. Dixon wasn’t expected to do anything in Chicago but he ended up blasting for 60 yards on just five carries (47-yard long). Miami’s strength is its pass rush and while they were able to limit New England to 89 yards rushing, the Fish gave up 124.9 yards on the ground last season. Buffalo led the league in carries last year (34.1) and rushed 33 times for 194 yards at Chicago.
Miami is 1-11 SU and 1-10-1 ATS the past two seasons with 3 overs and 9 unders vs. opponents who carry the ball 30-plus times. Get a game by game breakdown on this NFL/SDQL team trend at SportsDatabase.com!
This is a letdown spot for Miami and road teams off a divisional home win where they trailed at the half are 3-21 O/U with games finishing an average of 7.7 points below the posted total. Marrone was 6-1 ATS at Ralph Wilson Stadium last season and his club held opponents to 18.6 points per game (PPG). They are used to the underdog role and although this line is moving towards the Bills, a -1 point line in a divisional home game doesn’t say a lot. Look for Buffalo to tighten things up, fend off the run and keep Mike Wallace in check. Miami was shut out here last year but has confidence it can win. They are not worried about EJ Manuel beating them through the air so we’ll look for a methodical approach to this game as they try and grind out a tough, early season road win.
TC Pick of the Week: Dolphins and Bills UNDER 43