Totally Covered – Week 2: Chiefs at Texans

NFL Stats and Systems supporting our NFL pick of the week between the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans!

For my Week 2 Over/Under pick I’ve selected the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans game from Reliant Stadium. This is a revenge game for Houston following last year’s 30-0 home playoff loss. The Texans also lost in Week 1, 2015, to the Chiefs so they are psyched fo this opportunity to prove how much better they are in 2016.

Kansas City is coming off an overtime win over San Diego that didn’t start off well. With home field, thought, KC was able to fight back and nail down an important divisional win in the extra frame. Houston is playing its second of 2-straight home games. They have a road game at New England on-deck followed by thier first divisional game of the season, Week 4 at Tennessee.

SYSTEM SAYS

My first system “live” on this game looks at previous season playoff teams who were one and done (Texans). Teams seeking revenge against their 1-and-done playoff competitor from the previous season have benefited greatly from HFA, going 11-6-1 ATS.

Note: When one and done home teams were beat by 20-plus points (not specifically in the PO game), against a team they’re hosting this week, they are on a 9-2 SU/ATS run.

This game fits one of my Over/Under profiles that’s hit 58-percent “Over” with more than 400 plays. Of games in the O/U hot range, home teams seeking PO revenge are 4-1-1 ATS and 4-2 O/U and none of these six games finished with fewer than 43 total points scored. Small sample but it falls inline with one of my post-OT revenge angles that is 38-27 O/U, featured at the KillerSports.com Trend Mart. Click the link for SDQL.

KC at HOU and JAX at SD are both “live” in this angle. The first 65 games in this angle finished with an avg 44.2 total points scored. The hot range total for this angle is 36-45 and all games are 31-18 O/U (63%). Since 2008, this angle is 12-6 O/U.

TOTALLY COVERED PICK OF THE WEEK

There are injuries to the O-Line on both teams but neither one of these front sevens is running at full capacity, either. I’m looking for each of these teams for climb into the 20’s for scoring and I wouldn’t for a second rule out the potential of a defensive or special teams touchdown.

TC Pick of the Week: Chiefs — Texans OVER 41 points at -120

Totally Covered is written by Jarvis Simes, lead handicapper at Pick Sixty Sports. Follow @PickSixtySports for more winning systems, free NFL picks and Best Bets throughout the season!