Totally Covered – Week 17 NFL Picks

For our final Over/Under betting feature of the regular season we have a Sunday Night Football prediction from Cincinnati at Pittsburgh along with a Week 17 system to consider from Buffalo at New England and the Pick Sixty Weekly tip from Killer Sports!

 

There are two games “live” this week in our NOSE profile and after going 0-3 O/U last week, totals in this system have a season record of 12 overs and 7 unders. I know, it looked a lot better at 12-4 O/U (75-percent) but what are ya gonna do? The first game “live” is Philly at New York, where pride is on the line and not much else, and the second is Cinci at Pittsburgh where these teams are vying for the AFC North division title.

 

So far in this profile we’ve seen home faves with high totals outscoring their opponents 29-25 on average and the first-half scoring is 15-12. Pittsburgh’s first-half team total for tonight’s matchup is 13.5 and for the full game, it’s 25.5. The Steelers are fifth in first-half scoring this year (14.1) and at home that number jumps to 20.1. Only the Packers (28.3) and Patriots (21.4) score more first-half PPG this season in their own backyard.

 

Our system play for this game is on the Steelers First-half Team Total to go OVER 13.5 points but if your sportsbook doesn’t offer this type of betting, consider playing the full game OVER 48 points.

HANDICAPPING NOTES

The Bengals are on a short week following that Monday win over Denver and Andy Dalton is looking to prove he can play in the spotlight. Dalton’s primetime record is 3-6 SU/ATS and 5-4 O/U. The Steelers needed to win last week’s game to get in this position but they didn’t need to overextend themselves on offense and that really plays to their advantage this week. Pittsburgh scored 30 and 43 points in its first two divisional games this year and they are 5-1 O/U the last six times hosting Cinci when the line was within three points of Pick `em. Pittsburgh’s also 8-4 O/U in divisional home games off a home win including a 3-0 O/U mark in games from Week 16 or later, including playoffs. This is like a playoff game for each of these teams and we don’t think either defense is capable of holding off a high caliber offense for a full 60 minutes.

For Pick Sixty’s NFL play on the Eagles at Giants, read Week 17 Trends with Benefits!

WEEK 17 TOTALS

We waited on the total from Foxborough this week but Sunday morning, decided to book a play on the news that WR Julien Edelman and TE Rob Gronkowski would take the day off. The Pats are a consistent team at home who does not make many mistakes and each of these defenses is capable of keeping this game between the 20’s for the most part. Special teams TDs are always a concern with these two teams but we don’t see Buffalo’s offense doing much.

Pick: Take the Bills-Pats UNDER 44

 

We also booked a play on Oakland at Denver “Under” 48 points early in the week as our contribution to the KillerSports.com NFL Tipsheet. For a full write-up just visit our Facebook page here!