Totally Covered Week 17: Colts at Jags

Our Totally Covered, Week 17 NFL Over/Under report focuses on the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars!

Totally Covered Week 17 NFL Picks

Colts LB Darius Leonard leads the team in tackles with 115 and is looking to finish the season on a high note

The Indianapolis Colts’ 2019 season will always have a ‘what if’ question mark lingering for fans of Andrew Luck. At 7-8 SU, however, the current edition isn’t concerned with nostalgia. All this squad wants to do is hit .500. They can accomplish that goal Sunday by putting an exclamation mark on the season with a win at Jacksonville.

TOTALLY COVERED, WEEK 17: INDIANAPOLIS AT JACKSONVILLE
Line: Colts -4.5 and O/U 42.5

Jacoby Brissett and the Colts took down the Panthers 38-6 last week to end a four-game slide. In the first meeting with the Jags, Indy also won 33-13 but that was north in the Hoosier State.

Indy has lost 3-straight at Jacksonville and they are 2-5 O/U in their past seven visits but as a fave of -3 or more, Indy is 9-2 SU vs. the Jags since 2012. They are also 3-8 O/U in those games which include a 3-1 SU/ATS record in Florida, going 1-3 O/U. All four games in this set played from Week 12 out have stayed under the total.

In the win over Carolina, Brissett was just 14 of 27 for 119 yards. He was sacked three times and the Colts converted 4 of 11 on third down. As usual, Indy was well disciplined with zero penalties and they controlled the football for just 27:39 minutes. The big thing about Indy’s win was the 218 rushing yards. Road faves off a home win like that are staying under by an average of 9.7 PPG.

The Jags are just 1-6 in their past seven and essentially playing for the draft. They’ve scored fewer than 21 points in all seven wins. In other words, the Minshew Magic has left the building.

SDQL SYSTEM SAYS

Here is a Week 17 SDQL system suggesting that Indy will win by double-digits. It looks at divisional road faves of -3 points or more.

DIV and AF and week = 17 and p:TOP / 60 < 30 and P:W and 1 <= oS(W, N=7) <= 2 and line < -3 and p:RY > 75

Faced with revenge and off a game where they lost the time of possession but rushed the ball at least 75 yards, these teams are 1-9 O/U. The average total was 41.8 points and stayed under by 6.8 per game.

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TOTALLY COVERED, WEEK 17 PREDICTION

Indy’s 1-2 punch of Marlon Mack and Jordan Wilkins accounted for 179 rushing yards against Carolina. Wilkins (ankle) will miss this week’s tilt but as he has done all season, Nyheim Hines will gladly fill whenever possible. Hines has 86 touches for 463 total yards from scrimmage on the year. He’s also been testing his hand in the return game of late, yielding huge dividends. In last week’s win over Carolina, Hines took a pair of returns to the house and although the Jags’ special teams ranks much better than the Panthers, they’ll still have their hands full.

The Colts O-Line, defensive front seven and run game will carry this team to a win Sunday. It fits nicely into one of my SDQL game profiles where faves of -4 points or more are in the midst of their seventh consecutive “Under” seasons (76%).

The Week 17 record in that span is 0-7 O/U. All seven were divisional and only one finished with more than 41 points but the average was 20-15. Divisional road faves of 4 or more with a total of 41+ are 1-8 O/U. From Wk 14 out, divisional AFs of any number are 0-8 O/U with 41+ totals. Divisional AFs between 3-7 that won last week are 4-1 SU/ATS. All faves in that ATS range are 11-1 ATS off a win during the second half of the season. For my Totally Covered Week 17 call, I’m on the under.
Pick: Take the Colts at Jags Under 42.5 points

Totally Covered is written by Jarvis Simes, lead handicapper at Pick Sixty Sports. Jarvis is a certified SDQL Master and shares information @PickSixtySports as well as Killer Cappers!