Totally Covered – Week 15 NFL Picks

This week’s Over/Under feature is loaded with top plays, winning systems and betting trends along with the Pick Sixty power rating plays!

Thursday’s field goal fest from St. Louis dropped the recent record for standalone NFL games to 3 overs and 6 unders and as we pointed out in our Week 12 issue of Totally Covered, regular Sunday games have been staying consistently under at a solid 55-percent all season long.

Since Week 11, the record for Sunday NFL betting is 18 overs and 28 unders or 61-percent to the low side, excluding Sunday Night Football. Weather has not factored heavily into totals this season but at this time of year that could change at the drop of the hat. ‘Act and react’ as the saying goes and as we make our push towards the playoffs, here are two Week 15 picks along with power rating predictions and some bonus trends provided by KillerSports.com.

TAMPA BAY at CAROLINA

NFL Odds: Panthers -3 and O/U 41.5

Carolina is home this Sunday for the first of two games at Bank of America Stadium and then they can fly off to Atlanta for one last bout, shake some hands and head out for another long off-season. The Panthers made the playoffs last year for the first time since 2008 so they’re probably due for another three or four year break…

Or there is another scenario.

This one involves Carolina (4-8-1 SU) taking care of business against the Bucs (2-11 SU), beating up on the post-hype, Johny Football-hangover Browns next weekend and then setting up an all-in, chip’s on the table divisional showdown Week 17 against the Atlanta Falcons (5-8 SU).

Atlanta is tied for the NFC South lead with New Orleans (5-8 SU) and the Falcons have Pittsburgh this Sunday followed by a trip to the Big Easy. The Saints are in Chicago Monday night and they’ll finish with the Bucs. Without over analyzing it, Carolina has the best scenario of all these teams but trailing by a half-game there is there is no margin for error. They need to win out and for that to happen, the Panthers need Derek Anderson to step in and play good football, their run game to play like it did against the Saints and the defense to show continued progress.

Odds for all those things happening in three consecutive games are roughly 5.5 to 1 according to NFL futures at a couple online sportsbooks but rather than chasing down a longshot, here’s a pair of Over/Under systems hitting 89-percent that are “live” this weekend.

BLOWN LOADS

This first profile was inspired by Pat Archibald and Sonny Palermo, two writers from the sports betting magazine “Winner’s Edge” that made its way onto newsstands around the late 90’s, early 2000’s. Pat once mentioned how double-digit underdogs who had won a game straight-up were due for a letdown, at least against the spread because the oddsmaker could over-adjust the line. Sonny was always just making sarcastic comments and nicknames for things. His tagline at the EveryEdge sports betting forum included a story about how he had “popped out sporting full wood” at birth and that the nurses were impressed. Somehow I’m sure his persona played a part in this title.

The Panthers weren’t quite getting +10 during last week’s upset win at the Superdome so I adjusted the range and ran a check at SportsDatabase.com. In this exact setup, only one season since 2001 has produced more overs than unders when the total was listed between 37 and 44 points. Divisional games are 4-10 O/U and when the home team is favored they are 1-7 O/U, outscoring the opponent 20-12.

The second system looks at teams who went from big dogs to small faves in the span of a week. Let’s call it “Dogs to Darlings”. In games with smaller totals, the database shows the under hitting almost 90-percent with 20 plays since 1989. The combined record of these two systems is 3 overs, 24 unders and a push (89-percent).

TC Pick of the Week: Bucs and Panthers UNDER

WEEK 15 OVER/UNDER TRENDS

The following trends are found in this week’s KillerSports.com NFL Report featuring the SDQL. Click the link to download the weekly newsletter, sign up for the free NFL Tipsheet or check out the 2014 NFL Handicapping Bible. Each newsletter is loaded with dozens of trends for every matchup, free picks from MTi and Sportsbook Breakers along with teaser tips “live” this weekend that will blow your mind!

Bucs at Panthers: Tampa Bay is 0-7 O/U the week after a loss when their turnover margin was -2 or worse

Click SDQL Text: team = Buccaneers and p:L and p:TOM >= + 2 and date >= 20121223

49ers at Seahawks: San Fran is 0-10 O/U as a TD-plus dog following a game where they failed to cover by at least 10 points

Click SDQL Text: team = Fortyniners and 7 <= line and p:ats margin <= -10 and NB and date >= 20001029

Raiders at Chiefs: From Week 15 out, home teams are 6-16 O/U (73-percent) when hosting a team whose win percentage is less than .260 on the season

Click SDQL Text: week >= 15 and REG and o:WP < 26 and season >= 2009 and H and total < 50

Oakland is 2-11 SU (.154) this year with both wins coming at home and on the road they are barely breaking double-digits on the scoreboard (11 PPG). Pick Sixty Sports featured this game in the Friday Tipsheet and our play is on the Raiders-Chiefs to stay UNDER 41.5.

POWER RATING PICKS

These plays are generated from our NFL handicapping database and after the Cardinals’ 12-6 win over St. Louis the PK60 PR record is 21-6 ATS (78-percent) on the season. We published our first three power rating selections for Week 15 here in the Thursday Night Football preview (two dogs and a fave). Add Baltimore (-13.5 at William Hill), Denver -4 and Philadelphia (-3 or -3.5) to that list. As far as the Eagles go, it’s a play at either line but obviously laying -3 is a much better situation. It seems as if money is coming in the Cowboys and odds of Philly -3 (-120) are readily available but we’re in a holding pattern. It looks like that line could -3 at regular 10-cent juice so why pay more?

Totally Covered is written by Jarvis Simes, lead handicapper at Pick Sixty Sports. Follow us on Twitter for more NFL picks, winning systems and Best Bets throughout the week!