Totally Covered – Week 14 NFL Picks

This week’s NFL Over/Under betting feature is jam packed with a system update and play, power rating picks including a Best Bet from the Seahawks at Eagles and some wagering strategies for home underdogs

In Week 11 we introduced our NOSE system that helps picks winners by identifying home favorites with high totals in the second-half of the season. The three picks we suggested that week went 1-2 which was less than ideal but the system bounced back in Week 12 with four of five plays winning. It restored our faith in the betting profile but it also provided an opportunity to assess the eight games and look for similarities with the winning picks.

With new parameters in place that focused on special teams and ‘Yards per Point’ for both offense and defense we were able to reduce the list of eligible games from the previous two weeks from eight down to two. In Week 13 we had three games come up in the old school system but only one, Washington at Indianapolis, qualified under the new parameters. The Colts had been slow starters the past two-three weeks but they opened it up against the Skins and led 21-10 at the half (Winner). The revised Nose System record went to 3-0 and the other two games went 1-1 so including Indy, the overall record for these picks is 7-4.

Pick Sixty Sports will track all games through Week 17 and keep separate records for the new version and the original. The only wins and losses we track in our NFL picks record are the ones we personally wager on but the point of conducting this research and publishing the results is to try and develop winning football systems and share the information with our valued readers.

For Week 14, four total plays showed up but after crunching numbers on specials teams, yards per point and first-half/second-half scoring differential, just one play made the cut for an official play: Take the Philadelphia Eagles Team Total OVER 12.5 in the first-half at even money

The Eagles have the No. 1 special teams in the league and Philly is third pest in YPP behind the Packers and Patriots. Seattle’s defense is only mid-pack in opponent YPP. The forecast is sunny is sunny for the Link and it could be a bit windy (15-25 mph) but this is a great number where two touchdowns or a major plus two field goals would cash. We also have a system “live” for home favorites of -3 points or less that’s 10-2 O/U and numbers for a ‘divisional sandwich’ game that show scoring averages of 30-21 for the home side with 45 “live” games in the past five years.

We like the Eagles to start strong here so along with the Team Total are also suggesting a play on Philly in the first-half (-110) as well as the full game moneyline at -115. Philadelphia is one of our Pick Sixty Sports power rating predictions for Week 14 and so far this season those plays are 16-5 ATS (76-percent).

To recap, we have three plays from one game:

Take the Philadelphia Eagles Team Total OVER 12.5 in the first-half at even money – TC Pick of the Week!

Take Philly in the first-half (-110)

Take the Eagles to win this game outright at -115 on the moneyline – Power Rating Best Bet!

The PR record for our power rating picks last week was 6-1 ATS and the full card for this week is as follows:

Steelers +3

Lions -10

Eagles -1

Patriots -3.5

TIPS ON BETTING HOME DOGS

The Over/Under record on home dogs following Chicago’s 41-28 loss to Dallas on Thursday has moved to 36-20 O/U which is 64-percent. That’s the highest since 2010 when home dogs hit 58-percent to the “Over” (49-35-3 O/U) and if this pace holds up it will be the eighth time in the past 10 seasons that home dogs finished with at least 50-percent of the games going over.

[quote_text color=”#000000″ text_color=”#ffffff”]The overall record for home dogs since 2005 is 431 overs, 378 unders and 20 pushes or 53-percent “Over”[/quote_text]

The most profitable group for betting overs was on games with totals less than 37 and those 64 games produced a 62-percent “Over” record but the problem is that there hasn’t been one available since Week 16, 2012.

Four of this week’s home dogs have totals listed between 41 and 46 and since 2005 in Week’s 14 to 17 this group has a 60-percent hit rate at 49 overs, 33 unders and three pushes. Access those games and test your own systems now at SportsDatabase.com!

Totally Covered is written by Jarvis Simes, lead handicapper at Pick Sixty Sports. Follow us on Twitter for more NFL picks, winning systems and Best Bets throughout the season!