Our new Power Rating Over/Under system was a success in Week 13 and we’ve got four plays lined up for Sunday betting!
We rolled out this system a week ago today and the top four plays went 4-0 (Sides: 1-0 & Totals: 3-0). It lost its first play of Week 14 when Minnesota and Arizona stayed under by three points and anyone that was watching that fourth quarter knows how close the Vikings were to forcing OT, which would have led to an over.
The system utilizes ‘Yards per Point’ along with my special teams and defensive rankings, and then looks at opponent-offensive power ratings along with ‘site’ to identify value. The initial focus was on totals but its first week, Houston at Buffalo lined up as an ATS play which won.
This week, 12 of 16 games fit the initial qualifier and I narrowed it down to five plays. Weather is a concern in Kansas City and that’s chopped this total down by four points from its opening number. I’m not going to differentiate ‘weather’ into this system at this stage. These are just the plays that the formula spits out.
TC PR Picks for Week 14
1. MIN at ARI = OV 46
***This play already lost on TNF.
2. SD at KC = OV 42.5
KC ranks top 10 in offense and special teams. Home field against the weak Chargers D should generate plenty of scoring opportunities. There were thunderstorms expected overnight in KC with 100-percent chance of rain throughout Sunday morning and winds between 15-20 mph at kickoff (60 degrees; 65-percent POP). This total opened at 46.5 and is down four points.
3. DET at STL = OV 41
The Lions D ranks 16th overall and it was as bad as 28th in Week 10. They held GB, OAK and PHI to less than 20 before losing on that Hail Mary in Week 13. Before that score, GB had only put up 20 points. It will be interesting to see how they respond to that loss but I would expect nothing less than a huge effort from the offense and there is another system “live” on this game supporting the “Over”:
When the line is within +/- 3 points of ‘Pick’, non-divisional road teams off a Thursday game (extra prep) are 20-11-2 O/U since 2006. When the total was between 38 and 43, ten games produced 7 overs, 1 under and a push.
4. NE at HOU = UN 45.5 ***Sunday Night Football***
The common line on this game is up to 45 with one book showing a 45.5 (opened at 44.5). Julien Edelman is out, Danny Amendola will play for a second-straight week and Gronk and TE Chandler are game time decisions. The big fronts on New England have started to comeback on both sides of the football. Pats are off a loss so they are motivated, but this game still means more to Houston and all eight defensive players listed on their injury report a ‘Probable’. The Texans (9.3) are also “live” in a system I used for O-Line and front seven matchups and those plays are hitting 63-percent “Under” this year with home dogs going 2-4 O/U.
5. OAK at DEN = OV 43
Denver has the No. 1 overall D, top 10 scoring special teams and home field. Oakland has a top 10 offense but they only scored 10 points against the Broncos in the first meeting. This total has been pretty stable at 43.5 all week with one book testing the waters at 43. There was light snow in Denver yesterday but it’s clearing up today; 46 degrees and light winds.
My power rankings showed Denver as a long shot to cover but I still like the Raiders +7.5 and expect them to score some points. Oakland was on a 6-0 ATS run at Denver before Manning arrived and they are the more motivated team here. WR Amari Cooper is going to start, too. Brock Osweiler had a great ‘first start’ at home and he should be able to put up numbers against Oakland’s 23rd ranked D. HC Kubiak likes to lean ‘run’ but his top two backs, Anderson and Hillman, are banged up. They’re going to have to get the passing game going and get Osweiler some reps. He had 254 passing yards against the Pats.
Totally Covered is written by Jarvis Simes, lead handicapper at Pick Sixty Sports. Follow @PickSixtySports for more winning systems, free NFL picks and Best Bets throughout the season!