Totally Covered – Week 13 Thanksgiving NFL Picks

This week’s Over/Under betting feature looks at all three Thursday games with Thanksgiving Day trends, power rating predictions and a look-ahead ahead to our Best Bet from Sunday’s NFL card

October is like spring training for the true sports betting season that really kicks into gear late November with football betting, college basketball, NBA and NHL all cruising at full tilt from here until the New Year. We’re happy to have you aboard at Pick Sixty Sports and will continue to provide you with cutting edge systems and trends along with winning picks right through to the Super Bowl and beyond.

The first game today is from the Motor City and with less than an hour til kickoff the lines have held fairly steady at Detroit -7 and O/U 47. Unfortunately it sounds like RB Reggie Bush (ankle) is going to miss this game and the injuries to Detroit’s O-line are troublesome but we are sitting on the home fave to cover with a strong lean to the “Under” 47 (Note: Sports Interaction has this total set at 47.5 right now).

Detroit is 1-9 O/U its past 10 games with average final scores landing under by more double-digits. They were obviously without Calvin Johnson for a few of those games and he is a huge difference maker but to win this game the Lions are going to need their big defense to play at a high level and that should hopefully translate into very little scoring. We have a special teams system “live” on the UNDER 47.5 and if you’re looking for a teaser ‘hookup’ game, getting this number “Under” 54.5 is a good starting point. Read Pick Sixty’s Week 13 NFL Picks: Bears, Lions here!

POWER RATING PICKS

Together with the help of a few football handicapping friends, Pick Sixty has developed a power rating system that dates back to 2006 with varies levels of success. Our best season with these picks was in 2010 when the Best Bets finished at 65-percent ATS but the past few years this system slipped through the cracks. We dusted it off in Week 10 this year and made a few adjustments. The first four plays went 4-0 ATS and the four plays in Week 11 split at 2-2 ATS. Last week, the system kicked out six predictions (five faves and one dog) and they finished at 4-2 ATS.

That’s 10-4 ATS in the first three weeks and while we’re not trying to brag about the past, we do feel the success certainly makes this week’s plays worth noting. The only games we’ve run so far for Week 13 are the Thanksgiving Day picks and all three produced a selection:

The first three Power Rating Picks for Week 13 are Detroit -7, Philadelphia +3 and Seattle +1.5

TOTALLY COVERED

What would Totally Covered be without an Over/Under pick, right? If you follow us on Twitter you already know that our top total for today is on the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers UNDER 41 (-120). We have two strong divisional systems “live” on this game with a combined record of 12 overs and 36 unders since 2009 (75-percent UNDER). These teams don’t like each other, they play strong defense and will both lean on the run game to try and grind out yards. The Over/Under history between these two foes is 5-11-1 O/U according to SportsDatabase.com (SDQL Text: team = Seahawks and o:team = Fortyniners and season >= 2006) and we have an additional system for totals in this range that is 3-12 Over/Under since 1991.

TC Pick of the Week: Seahawks and Niners UNDER 41 (-120)

 

Totally Covered is written by Jarvis Simes, lead handicapper at Pick Sixty Sports. Follow us on Twitter for more NFL picks, winning systems and Best Bets throughout the season. Also, check out our Best Bet for Sunday with a full write-up at the Pick Sixty Facebook page (Chargers, Ravens, Week 13)!