Totally Covered – Week 13 NFL Picks

New Power Rating Over/Under betting system uses SDQL to identify winners!

Long-time followers of Pick Sixty Sports have probably heard me talk numerous times about the Power Ratings that I run each week to help try and predict ATS winners. They are a constant work in progress that I started in 2005, based primarily on key stats that I feel give the strongest indicator for success. For the most part, these plays hit around 55-percent ATS each season but once in while, like 2014 for instance, they go a run.

The Pick Sixty power rating Best Bets finished 23-14 ATS (62-percent) last year during the regular season and then went 5-2 ATS (71-percent) in the playoffs. Obviously I made them a priority in 2015, and so far the top picks are 8-4-1 ATS while the general group plods alongs at 52-percent, dragged down by ‘home chalk’ plays that are only hitting 44-percent.

As we continue doing battle on the ATS front, I’ve been developing a new NFL betting system that looks to incorporate power ratings with SDQL to identify Over/Under value, and for the first time I’ve come up with a list of plays.

This is the first time running my new system with actual “live” bets but according to my research,  these plays are hitting 62-percent through the first 12 weeks of 2015. When the “live” team is at home, that record jumps to 74-percent with 35 plays and today we’re going to put it to the test.

My theory is that the right combination of 1) Offensive talent, 2) Good ‘scoring’ opponent special teams and C) Weak D, could lead to a high percentage of overs (first) and a nice ATS win percentage (second), as long as the lines were right (see Texans at Bills, below).

TC POWER RATING PICKS

The first group of games with this system is identified by a series of stat-based SDQL queries. For more information on SDQL and the free sports database at Killer Sports, check out our weekly NFL Report. Nine of 16 games this week made the first cut and that’s where my power ratings come into play. The four official picks for this system’s first week are noted first, followed by some additional handicapping notes and betting tips. Remember, this is a trial system so don’t go crazy with your bets. We’ll see how the first round goes and then take it from there.

Official TC PR Picks for Week 13

1. 49ers and Bears OVER 42.5

2. Bills -3

3. Seahawks and Vikings OVER 42

4. Packers and Lions OVER 47 — Winner

The Green Bay and Detroit game from Thursday barely fit the profile and look how it ended — “Over” on an untimed, 61-yard Hail Mary pass from Aaron Rodgers to Richard Rogers. I’m all for a little suspense but it would be totally fine if the other two totals hit in the third quarter.

`Capping Notes — Week 13

SF at CHI: OV 42.5

My power ratings show the Bears crushing the ATS line for this game and QB Cutler (illness), TE Bennett (ribs) and TE Miller (ribs) are all expected to start. Winds at Soldier Field are 5-10 mph.

HOU at BUF: Bills -3

The new system says the Bills will win this game based on offense, specials teams and home field advantage (HFA). At home, Buffalo is 6-0 SU/ATS following a game where they allowed more than 100 rushing yards and the past four wins were by more than a TD.

DEN at SD = Pass

Small lean to the Broncos and the UN with their strong D but there are question marks with the offense and this is a letdown spot off that big win against the Pats.

SEA at MIN = OV 42

Each of these teams ranks top 10 in special teams. The Hawks have a better offense and they are coming off a huge game. With the Vikings on home field, I’m projecting 45-47 total points.

DAL at WSH = Pass

The new system suggests the Redskins will win straight-up but there is no value on the ATS line. Small lean to the UN.

GB at DET = OV 47

GB’s 7th ranked offense was deciding factor and truthfully, with all their injuries to the O-Line, the Pack should’ve lost and the game should’ve stayed UN. What a finish!

ATL at TB = Pass

I couldn’t find value on the side or total for this game. Falcs have lost 7-straight ATS but this is divisional and the Bucs are a bad home team. Divisional road teams that have failed to cover in five-straight games are 10-1 ATS since 2006 (SDQL: tS(ATSW, N=5) = 0 and A and DIV and date >= 20061210), but they are usually getting more than a field goal. RB Freeman (concussion), WR V-JAX (knee) and TE Seferian-Jenkins (shoulder) are all expected to play.

BLT at MIA = Pass

My power ratings say the Ravens could win straight-up but I don’t know what to think about their offense. Capped this game and came up with a lot of conflicting data. This game is a total pass for me.

JAX at TEN = Pass

There are small leans to the Titans and the UN here, based on HFA and better D. WR Hurns (concussion) is out for the Jags and the Titans are going to be getting some nice calls from the officials after the way they were screwed vs. Oakland.

Totally Covered is written by Jarvis Simes, lead handicapper at Pick Sixty Sports. Follow @PickSixtySports for more winning systems, free NFL picks and Best Bets throughout the season!