Thursday’s late game form Green Bay was a good reminder of the impact weather can have on Over/Under bets late in the season. Here are a few SDQL tips, systems and trends to help identify value picks down the stretch
It’s still November for a couple more days on the calendar, but if you think back to the Sunday weather in Week 8 or 9, there is a notable difference between those ‘November’ games and what we could see today in places like Cincinnati or Kansas City.
The Thursday night game between the Bears and Packers from Lambeau Field served as a good reminder how weather can impact the games, and if you’re ever looking to research a NFL betting trend from an outdoor game, later in the season, here is a tip.
As you can see from the above link to Sports Database, non-divisional conference games on grass have a 54-percent chance of staying under any total greater than 41, when the game is played beyond Week 11. Compare that to a query that only uses the ‘month’ parameter (Ie. Games from November out), and you’ll notice a four-percent difference in Over/Under record (slightly less games staying under), and a 1-point difference in O/U margin.
Those are really small differentials but look at it this way: If you liked the favorite in a matchup and your book offered you two lines, -3 or -3.5, at the exact same price, which one would you choose? Obviously you would take the one that gives you a better chance at winning and the point is that occasionally, using the ‘game number’ parameter rather than the ‘month’ parameter can increase your win potential.
LIVE SYSTEM FOR WEEK 12
Okay, I’m positive that most of you didn’t pop into read this week’s Over/Under betting feature just to learn a tip for using SDQL, so here’s something that you might find a little more interesting.
In the past four seasons, home teams in the above profile are just 21-30 SU and 16-34-1 ATS with 70-percent of the games staying under the posted total. My theory for why we are seeing a 30-percent increase in the “Under” for these games in recent years is that the huge increase in scoring from the first two and-a-half months of the season has inflated these totals, creating value on the under.
Think of it this way. Before 2010, the average NFL score for a game played in September or October was 21.9 to 19.2, or 41.1 total points (SDQL: 9<=month<=10 and H and season<2010). Since 2012, the same type of games are finishing with 46.2 total points (24.3 to 21.9), and going “Over” at an eight-percent higher rate. More overs in the first two month forces the book to raise their ‘projected’ total as the season goes on, even when things such as weather conditions or late-season injuries should perhaps not warrant such an increase.
Read this week’s NFL Handicapping Newsletter for more SDQL, dozens of trends and top picks from MTi and Sportsbook Breakers!
NFL TRENDS WITH BENEFITS
The four games “live” in Week 12 are Raiders at Titans, Bills at Chiefs, Chargers at Jags and the Patriots at Broncos. Here is an additional SDQL trend supporting the “Under” for each game:
The Oakland Raiders are 0-10 ATS and 3-7 O/U as a favorite off a road loss where they gained fewer than 300 total yards (SDQL: team = Raiders and F and p:TY < 300 and p:AL and season >= 2005)
Buffalo has played 5 overs and 14 unders their past 19 road games on grass that followed a loss (SDQL: team = Bills and A and p:L and surface = grass and date >= 20091122)
San Diego has a 3-8 O/U record following their past 11 blowout losses by 20 points or more (SDQL: team = Chargers and p:HL and p:margin <= -20)
New England has 9 overs and 18 unders since 2005 in games with a total less than 45, when the Pats are averaging between 20-27 points scored in their past three games (SDQL: team = Patriots and 20 <= tA(points, N=3) <= 27 and total < 45 and season >= 2005)
From the four games listed, above, we’re going with the Buffalo at Kansas City matchup for this week’s top total.
TC Pick of the Week: Bills and Chiefs UNDER 42 points