The Tennessee Titans managed a 4-4 record away from home last season and they’ll start 2014 playing three of the first four on the road. Week 1 it’s the Titans and Chiefs from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City and we have the Over/Under circled for one of our top, Week 1 NFL picks
Titans at Chiefs (-3, O/U 43)
Ken Whisenhunt takes over for Mike Munchak in Tennessee and the Whiz brought on two new co-ordinators in Jason Michael and Ray Horton. They’ve got a new look in the backfield after Chris Johnson left for greener pastures (Jets) so the pressure is on fourth-year QB Jake Locker to stay healthy and take his game to the next level. Tennessee’s scoring average (22.6 PPG) and time of possession (30:16) hit five-year highs in 2013 so with better coaching, this team’s offense is poised for a step in the right direction but the Titans defense is a concern.
Kansas City took off out of the gate in 2013 but the Chiefs were just 2-6 down the stretch, including a 45-44 playoff loss at Indianapolis. Next week the Chiefs travel to Mile High and with a divisional game on-deck, KC averaged 26 PPG in Andy Reid’s first season. We’ll look for a fast start from the Chiefs as they try and take advantage of a retooled Titans D.
HC Reid also extended his hot streak in Week 1 last season with a 28-2 win at Jacksonville. The Jags scored a safety in the first quarter but it was 21-2 by half-time and all KC from there. Reid’s Week 1 record the past six seasons is now 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) with four of the wins coming on the road. His two home games in this trend were a 38-3 win over St. Louis in 2008 and a 27-20 loss to GB in 2010. Reid’s two teams, the Eagles and Chiefs have scored an average of 28.7 PPG in Week 1 the past six seasons (172/6=28.7 PPG).
Tennessee’s offensive line saw some improvements during the off-season and we expect Locker to have some success despite Arrowhead’s mystique. Kansas City is missing WR Bowe but the rest of their injury report has erred on the side of caution. As each of these teams breaks into the 20’s we’ve circled this as one of the top totals on the Week 1 card.
Pick: Take the Titans-Chiefs OVER 43 points (The Greek)
Totally Covered is written by Jarvis Simes, co-founder of Pick Sixty Sports. Be sure and follow Pick Sixty on Twitter for more NFL picks, winning systems and Best Bets throughout the season!