Totally Covered – Super Bowl 50: Panthers vs. Broncos

Over/Under betting feature with three picks to consider along with our Super Bowl Best Bet, all backed by the SDQL NFL database!

The Carolina Panthers started this season 14-0 SU and are 17-1 SU as 6-point faves for the big game. Denver started the season 7-0 SU and are currently riding a four-game win streak. As part of my in-depth research over the past two weeks, I’ve uncovered a few interesting angles that can help identify value against public perception from the regular season involving teams that ‘just don’t lose’.

ONE-TIME STREAKERS — FAVES

Playoff faves that went on at least one extended winning streak during the current season are likely having a point or two added onto thier line to offset Joe Pub betting but lately, these teams are finding ways to smash through the bookmaker’s line and get it done anyway. Since 2013, they are riding an 11-1 SU hot streak (7-5 ATS), with eight of 11 wins coming by single-digits.

True road teams are 1-3 ATS

Neutral field Super Bowl faves are 1-3 ATS

Carolina blew the doors off Arizona in the Conference Championships, 49-15, their fourth win this season by 28-plus points and teams off a blowout win are riding a three-game win streak including Carolina’s DF win over Seattle and New England’s Super Bowl win over the Hawks in 2014. Perhaps more notable, though, is the 8-1 O/U streak that’s “live” dating back to 2009. Check the breakdown with this SDQL trend from SportsDatabase.com

There were obviously a lot of talented offenses involved in that run and some No. 1 rated D’s as well, so my four questions for this game are:

A. Is Carolina a Top Offense?

They made hay against some brutal teams all season, padding thier stats with a seemingly average group of personnel at key offensive positions but Cam was the catalyst. TE Olsen is a proven stud that runs routes like a WR and RB Stewart is healthy but are Newton’s wideouts really a threat against the talented Bronco D?

B. How much of Carolina’s past two wins over Seattle and Arizona can be attributed to their home field advantage?

C. What is Peyton Manning capable of doing with Denver’s offense?

D. Has the league unofficially returned to its scoring trends of the previous decade (2000-09), otherwise known as the pre-concussion awareness era?

ONE-TIME STREAKERS — DOGS

As noted, the Broncos are currently riding a streak of four-straight wins but they also started the 2015 season with seven consecutive wins out of the gate. Any playoff dog of +6 points or more that put together a streak of six or more consecutive wins at any point during the current season has a 12-3 ATS record. The most recent win was a few weeks ago when Green Bay +7 lost by six in Arizona (Pack won six-straight to start the season).

SDQL SYSTEM TRENDS

All but one of the 15 games in this profile took place on the road or at a neutral field.

Only 4 of 15 dogs allowed more than 24 points (CAR TT is 25.5)

Round’s 3-4, the dog was 6-1 ATS

Totals of 41-48 went 0-6 O/U

Super Bowl totals are 0-4 O/U (avg total 47; games stayed UN by more than a TD)

If the dog is currently riding a streak of three or more wins, they are 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS.

If our opponent won more than 12 games during the regular season, the dog is 10-1 ATS.

NFL PICKS: SUPER BOWL 50

My power ratings had me leaning towards Denver as soon as the line opened on this game but I was quite certain the spread would get better, which it did. For some, Carolina’s dominant performance over Arizona, not to mention the rest of the league, is too hard to resist. Manning is being viewed as an afterthought by a lot of bettors and the consensus is that Denver’s only chance will come via their defense playing yet another top shelf game. The D certainly needs to be great to stop Cam Newton but I feel like Denver’s offense will also need to put at least 20 or even 24 points on the board to win this game straight-up. According to my numbers, they’ll be up to that task and my top play as featured in Super Bowl Trends With Benefits is on Denver with the points.

Because this is an Over/Under feature I’m also going to suggest three ways you can tie the total into your Super Bowl betting, but I would suggest playing these for no more than one unit each.

1. Flat bet the Panthers Team Total Under

2. Tease the Broncos to the Under

3. Prop Bet — Take the Panthers QB Sack Total Over 2.5

Totally Covered is written by Jarvis Simes, lead handicapper at Pick Sixty Sports. Follow @PickSixtySports for more winning systems and free picks, and stop by the EveryEdge sports betting forum for this year’s free Super Bowl Props Contest!