Boston snapped a five-game slide Sunday and start the week looking for redemption against a streaking Jays squad who have taken three consecutive series vs. the Rangers, Sox and Yankees
Jays have stepped up big this year against the World Series champs, going 7-3 in the first 10 meetings including a series win last weekend and a sweep at Fenway back in May.
Yesterday the Jays won a tight one in New York, 5-4. The pitching staff was solid and the determination from both teams to win this game was noticeably high but Toronto was able to capitalize on a terrible throwing error by Yankee reliever Dillon Betances in the eighth and some clutch hitting in the ninth.
Of all MLB teams who won a game that was tied through eight innings, Toronto has the third highest “Over” percentage the next time out (.563), clearing the posted total by 1.17 RPG (second only to LAA). This season the Jays are 5-2 O/U in that spot and in 2013 the team went 6-3-1 O/U (11-5-1 O/U L2 years including 8-3-1 O/U on the road).
Since RA Dickey became a Jay he is 2-2 O/U against the Sox with Boston registering 13-5-1-4 total runs against Toronto. At Fenway last September they smacked him for five runs in the first six innings (4 runs in the second alone). Seems to me like Boston can see the knuckleball alright and when they’re “on”, they tend to pile up the runs early. In the 13-0 win against RAD in April, 2013, Boston scored 5 runs in the first and led 8-0 through five.
The Jays are a slight “Over” team at Boston since 2004 (46-41-6 O/U, 52.9%) and Buchholz can be hit on but without Lind, EE and Lawrie in the lineup I don’t have as much confidence in Toronto’s offense.
Boston at home off a road win has averaged 6.0 RPG against the Blue Jays and 5.5 RPG against all MLB teams since 2004. Of their 39 home wins in this spot only eight were by exactly one run. I think Boston wins this game and I could see it being by a healthy margin.
Two plays on this game:
Boston -1 (+101) for 1.5 units… Pinnacle
Boston TT OV 4.5 (-115) for 1 unit… SIN
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