Thursday Baseball Picks

The Cubs, Reds, Rockies and Giants are in ‘Getaway’ mode this afternoon and we’ve booked two MLB picks backed with umpire trends and SDQL codes to consider

The phrase “dog days of summer” gets thrown around like a Rosin bag this time of year as online sports bettors countdown to kickoff in college football and the NFL. Baseball betting does drag on for some and the anticipation for when pigs fly is certainly building but there are a few things to consider when handicapping these lazy, August afternoon matchups. For today’s top picks we focused on time of day, home plate umpire and where teams sit in the standings as we sorted through the MLB lineup.

CHICAGO CUBS at CINCINNATI

The Cubs (-115, O/U 7.5) are in a rare road fave spot today and they’ve done surprisingly well, going 10-6 the past four seasons. These teams split the first two games of this series and the baseball odds look about right given the season Jake Arrieta is having but at this point in the year, we feel home teams should be given a little more credit for these early games. Players start to wear down in the dog days and for the guys who get to wake up in familiar surroundings, the alarm clock and earlier practice schedule aren’t quite as disruptive to the system.

 

Looking at late-season games with an early start time at SportsDatabase.com we can see that in games with lower totals the home team has a 36-16 record since 2004 (69-percent), generating a 23-percent return on investment (ROI) or +17.8 unit profit. SDQL Code: H and start time < 1600 and total < 8 and day = Thursday and month in [8 , 9]

 

Dylan Axelrod will make his second start and he looked good through six innings at Colorado last week but his bullpen failed him miserably. For today’s first play we took the Reds’ 24th ranked pen out of the equation and booked Axelrod to bounce back in this rubber game at plus money.

Pick: Take the Reds (+104) through 5 innings

COLORADO at SAN FRANCISCO

It’s no secret where the money is going on this one with the Giants now sitting as high as -210 at a few sports betting outlets. At that price, a bettor needs to be correct 68-percent of the time just to breakeven (see 69-percent SDQL code above) and for this contest we found better value on the total.

Tip: To calculate expected win percentage, simply take the juice and divide it by the ‘juice + potential winnings’ (210 / 310 = 68-percent)

 

Jordan Lyles has never had much support in his days with Houston or Colorado and while Yusmeiro Petit isn’t known for his endurance, the Giants pen should have no problem working though this battered Rockies lineup. The umpire for today’s game is Marvin Hudson and his last seven starts at AT&T Park resulted in seven unders. We also note that when the total is less than O/U 8, large home favorites with Hudson have recorded a mark of 1 over and 11 unders since 2012 (92-percent UNDER), seen with this code:

SDQL: HPU = Marvin Hudson and H and (140 < – line < 200) and total < 8 and season >= 2012

Colorado’s been getting surprising offense from players trying to make a name and this could be a close game but we don’t think it gets past eight runs.

Pick: Take the Under 7.5 (-120)

 

Check all your own MLB systems and trends at SportsDatabase.com, home of the SDQL!