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Posted on November 28, 2013November 28, 2013 by Jarvis Simes

Thanksgiving Day NFL Systems: Packers and Lions

The Detroit Lions are “live” in one of our SDQL football systems that is hitting 86-percent since 1995 when they take on the Green Bay Packers in the first of three Turkey Day matchups

 

There is an old gambling cliché that says you can’t make money all day if you don’t start in the morning and today we’ll have plenty of opportunities with Thanksgiving NFL betting from dawn til dark. The goal is to make a profit that helps pad our bankroll for the weekend ahead and so far we have at least one play lined up from each of Thursday’s games starting with the Packers and Lions.

GREEN BAY at DETROIT

Best Sportsbook Odds: Lions -6 (Sports Interaction) and O/U 48.5

The Packers have dominated this series the past eight years but their season took a turn for the worse when QB Aaron Rodgers went down against the Chicago Bears in Week 9. Green Bay has lost three-straight starts ATS since then and could only score 3, 6 and 7 points in the first-half of those games. The Pack are handing the reins to Matt Flynn and last week when he entered the game against Minnesota, Flynn let loose for 218 yards and a major.

 

Perhaps there was less pressure on Flynn coming off the bench but he spent enough time with Pack before departing for Seattle that he understands HC Mike McCarthy’s system. Detroit’s run D ranks second overall so we’ll look for Green Bay to open up its passing game early and try to spread things out so they can get their feature back Eddie Lacy some room to work.

 

[quote_text color=”#000000″ text_color=”#ffffff”]Detroit has a record of 18 overs and 3 unders when laying points at home to an opponent who passes the ball at least 35 times per game on average[/quote_text]

 

The Lions are still bitter over last week’s loss to Tampa Bay and they’ll take advantage of Packer defense ranked 29th overall who really struggle to defend the pass. With Nate Burleson back in the fold we are expecting big things from QB Matt Stafford today.

THANKSGIVING DAY NFL PICKS – #1

Green Bay is off a rare overtime tie against Minny last week and because Rodgers is out they are getting back a fair chunk of points in this divisional matchup. We tested this game with a dozen overtime NFL betting systems making slight adjustments for ‘previous results’ and the majority of the numbers produced higher scoring averages for the first-half (15.3-14.3) vs. the second (11.2-12.6). It’s a short week and an early start but there is no time to spare for either of these teams and we expect a good pace from the first snap.

Pick: Take the Packers-Lions OVER 24.5 in the first-half

 

Pick Sixty Sports posted six NFL winners last week (6-1 overall) and we’ll have more plays rolling throughout the holiday weekend. The first Week 13 total is posted on our new Facebook page (Giants at Redskins). Follow @PickSixtySports on Twitter and don’t miss a single play!

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