Thanksgiving Day NFL Picks: Bears at Lions

The Detroit Lions are home from a disappointing road trip to kickoff a three-game homestand against the Chicago Bears in Part 1 of our US Thanksgiving Day football betting extravaganza. Pick Sixty Sports has selections posted for all three games today and we’ll start things off with an ATS prediction from Detroit.

The US Thanksgiving is upon us and that means one thing – all day NFL action. The lineup this year looks great with two of three games featuring point spreads of 3 or less. It’s the early game that really catches my fancy on Turkey Day. NFL odds on the Detroit Lions are currently -7 at home against the Chicago Bears with some sportsbooks offering reduced juice around -105 or even money.

The Lions are coming into this game having lost two-straight while the Bears have won back-to-back games by identical 21-13 scores since getting obliterated by Green Bay. Two teams seemingly going in different directions but first let’s take into account the caliber of the teams Detroit lost to. Arizona had a quick start against the Lions in Week 11 and the two strikes on their first two possessions are all the Cards would end up needing in a 14-6 win. The next week in Foxboro it was Tom Brady’s top ranked offense and special teams leading the way to a 34-9 win.

Our average power rating for the Cards and Patriots sits at 21.1, the Lions are a 23.6 (lower is better) and the Bears (31.3) sneak in at 12th in the NFC just ahead of the Redskins, Giants, Panthers and Bucs. Add in home field and although Detroit could have won in the desert, the odds were stacked against them. Pulling off an upset in New England was highly unlikely.

Chicago’s wins on the other hand have come against some weaker squads in Tampa Bay and Minnesota. If the Bucs hadn’t given the Bears two turnovers in their own end, the Bears would probably not have scored more than a field goal or two last week.

There’s no question the Lions offense has struggle this year but the Bears D should be exactly the tonic that cures Detroit’s woe. They’ve allowed 25 touchdowns this year and you can expect QB Matt Stafford to add to that total with Megatron and Golden Tate as his top red zone targets. Reggie Bush (ankle) has missed the last several games but he practiced this week and could be back to provide help for a run game that’s averaged just 21 carries per game the past three outings. We’ll also look for Detroit’s pass rush to get back on track after getting skunked the past two weeks. Again, the Pats and Cards’ offensive lines rank near the top of the league in pass protection but Chicago is mid-pack at best. The Lions averaged three QB sacks per game the first nine games and they had three last year during a 40-32 win against these Bears.

TURKEY DAY PICKS

Chicago is 2-5-1 ATS in eight games under HC Marc Trestman against pass-first opponents who allow an average of less than 24 points per game. See for yourself with the following SDQL code from SportsDatabase.com. The Bears allowed 34 points per game in those contests and while that may be a stretch for Detroit, we feel that 27 will probably be enough for a cover today. Chicago is 0-3 SU/ATS its past three games against teams with a winning record and allowed a minimum of 31 points per game. The Bears are also 1-6-1 ATS their past eight against Detroit.

Pick: Take the Lions to cover

 

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