NBA Finals – Heat vs. Spurs

The third game of a playoff series has produced a 60-percent Over/Under angle that coincides with another NBA system hitting 68-percent

 

With the series knotted at one game apiece the common online betting consensus is that San Antonio needs to take at least two of the next three games on home court to have any chance for a series upset. The Spurs are 13-3 SU and 10-5-1 the last 16 times hosting the Heat but as the saying goes, “These are not your granddaddy’s Miami Heat!”

 

Action on the side and total is split through two furious days of buildup towards this game and some sports betting outlets have moved back to 188 for a full-game total while others hold steady at 187.5. San Antonio is a small home favorite thanks in part to their 41-7 home record since the season began and although we have a slight lean to the home side, our play for tonight is on the first-half total.

 

SYSTEM SAYS

San Antonio trailed by three points at the half in game 1 of this series and the two teams combined for 101 points. In game 2, the first-half total combined points were 95 and at home the Spurs outscored opponents 51.4 to 98.7 this season. The NBA odds for tonight’s game in the first-half show a total of 93.5 and we have two systems “live” courtesy of Greg Dempson Sports.

 

Teams who win 75-percent or more of their games straight-up that are coming off a home win (Heat) have produced a record of 10 overs and 22 unders in the past three seasons when the total is listed between 90.5 and 95.5 points. In the past 15 years the record goes to 37-73 O/U (66-percent).

 

In the third game of a playoff series the Over/Under record in the first-half since 1996 is 99 overs and 150 unders (60-percent) and the average total was 95 vs. and average combined score of 93.4.

 

For tonight’s contest our money is on the Heat and Spurs to stay “Under” 93.5 points in the first-half.

 

Good luck!

 

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Bulls beat the Heat, Miami still one to beat

The second longest winning streak in NBA history may be over but it’s had little to no impact on the Miami Heat’s odds to win the NBA championship title

 

One day after losing 101-97 to the Chicago Bulls, the NBA’s defending champion Miami Heat still hold an 11-game lead over Indiana for first place in the Eastern Conference. 27-game win streaks will do that for a team.

 

Miami’s next streak likely begins Friday night when they visit the 25-47 New Orleans Hornets but as the dust settles on what was truly one the most entertaining runs in league history, it’s worth re-assessing how the books view the Heat’s chances for summer success.

 

For current NBA odds to win this year’s title, click here

 

Odds that Miami wins the East will cost a bettor 4 to 1 and although it seems likely, look where the four No. 1 seeds in this year’s college tournament sit. Louisville and Kansas are staring down tight Friday matchups vs. Michigan State and Florida, Gonzaga’s already hit the showers and as I write this, Indiana is staring down a 12-point deficit vs. Marquette.

 

If you shop around there’s a chance you can book the Heat at even money to win it all but you really like to bet futures, have a look how the lead pack from the rest of the field is paying back.

 

MIA james v Chi

Miami outscored opponents 105-94 during the club’s all-time longest straight-up win streak

 

Oklahoma City, who lost four games to one vs. Miami in last year’s final are listed at +450. Second is the West-leading San Antonio Spurs (+650) and then basketball odds take a big leap to +1600 where you’ll find the Nuggets and Clippers.

 

The Pacers get back 20 to 1 odds and considering some of the matchups Indiana will draw in rounds one through three, that’s not half-bad. Everyone’s favorite LA team, the Lakers, are overpriced at +2500 and then rounding out the pack are a team who have already capped their season with last night’s win over the Heat (Chicago Bulls, 30 to 1).

 

While it might not be the wisest investment loading up big money against the Heat to win, we would much rather take our chances betting futures with one of the team’s who have benefitted from the streak than the one whose value has disintegrated to nothing.

 

We like to bet dogs and this past week our free picks are 7-0! Follow Pick Sixty Sports on Twitter and see for yourself.

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