Totally Covered – Week 12 NFL Picks

Thursday’s late game form Green Bay was a good reminder of the impact weather can have on Over/Under bets late in the season. Here are a few SDQL tips, systems and trends to help identify value picks down the stretch Continue reading “Totally Covered – Week 12 NFL Picks”

Monday Night Football, NFL Picks: Lions, Hawks

Betting data and predictions for tonight’s Conference battle between the Detroit Lions and Seattle Seahawks

WEEK 4 MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

The concept of ‘revenge’ in professional football is an interesting one. Some argue that it’s a non-factor in today’s game, played out from high volume off transactions every spring when the free agent gates swing open. Others say that only relevant when handicapping same-season divisional games, especially when the rivalry is an old one or if there is bad blood from the first meeting.

Pete Carroll is looking for revenge against the Lions tonight, from a game that took place during the 2012 season in Detroit. And whether or not that plays any part in Seattle’s incentive to win this game, I think the Lions better be prepared for an all out brawl on both sides of the field.

Seattle has not allowed a single third quarter point at home or in the Super Bowl since Week 10 of last season. The only fourth quarter points they allowed were in the playoffs to the Panthers (7), Packers (6) and Patriots (14), and I’m sorry Matt Stafford, but those last two quarterbacks are in a different league than you are.

Hard Stat: The Seahawks have outscored their past five regular season guests 88-0 in the second-half.

The Hawks are off a blowout win over the Chicago Bears and that’s been factored into this line but it still seems like their 0-2 start is keeping the odds lower than they should be. Consider that in Week 1, the Hawks put up 31 points on the road against a Rams D who has held its past three opponents to 19.3 points per game. In Week 2, playing away for a second-straight week, Seattle gave up 27 points to a Packer team that’s averaged 37 points at home since 2014.

One key to both of those games is that Kam Chancellor was out of the lineup. Tonight it sounds like Marshawn Lynch (hammy) will miss and that is a big factor, but Thomas Rawls, Fred Jackson and Russell Wilson should likely find some room against a Lions D ranked 14th vs. the run.

Jimmy Graham is another factor and on Monday Night, Graham is 6-2 SU/ATS, his only road loss coming to these Seattle Seahawks, who beat the Saints 34-7 in 2013. Of note, New Orleans did not score in the second-half.

As an outdoor road dog of more than +7 points, Detroit is 0-19 SU since 2006, getting outscored in the second-half by an average 14-6. Since 2009, the Lions are 3-9 ATS and they’ve scored a total of 20 third quarter points (1.7 avg).

Revenge minded or not, Seattle is still 1-2 SU and third in thier division. That’s enough to motivate any squad. Oh and one more thing about that loss in Detroit a few years back: The Hawks were playing the second of back-to-back road games that day and they were coming off a hard-fought 13-6 slugfest in San Fran. Seattle led the Lions 17-14 at half-time, the third quarter was scoreless and then the Hawks ran out of gas. Detroit outscored them 14-7 in the fourth. Not sure if it matters or not but Carroll’s record in revenge games since 2012 is 13-3 ATS. At home, he’s 8-2 ATS, outscoring opponents 28-11 and when playing teams he last lost to at their building, Carroll is 11-1 ATS his past 12, outscoring them 29-13.

NFL PICKS

My top play for tonight is on the Seahawks -9.5 and I’ve also placed some ‘beer & pizza’ wagers on Seattle -.5 in the fourth quarter (-120) and for Seattle to win both halves SU at +110.

Monday Night Pick: Seahawks -9.5

Check out NFL Week 4 Trends with Benefits in the SDQL section for more sports betting information!