When a starting pitcher faces his former team for the first time it appears that the safest bet on the board is to take the “Under” and we’ve got the stats to prove it
The Kansas City Royals will get a chance to snap out of their current funk Saturday when ex-Royal, Billy Buckner makes his first appearance in the majors since 2010.
Los Angeles (21-27) took the first two games of this series 5-4 and 5-2 and the Angels have now won six in a row. They are still five games below .500 on the road this season (9-14) but that was thanks to a dismal April. Dating back to May 9 the club is 5-1 away from the cozy confines and playing with renewed confidence as they continue chipping away at the 10-game AL West lead held by Texas.
Buckner made his MLB debut with the Royals in 2007 and after short stints in Arizona and Detroit, spent time in the minors before getting the call up to replace Tommy Hanson. The right-hander posted a 4.56 ERA in eight starts with Triple-A Salt Lake City this season, registering 40 strikeouts in 47.1 innings pitched.
This will be Buckner’s 22nd career start in the bigs and he is 5-11 with a 6.63 ERA and sports betting shops are understandably slow in releasing lines for this contest.
SportsDatabase.com offers an exclusive list on how starting pitchers have performed when facing their former teams for the first time and the overall record since 2004 is 97-115 and 93-114-5 O/U, or a profit of +$1,110 for “Under” bettors.
LINES IN LIMBO
Kansas City will give the ball to Jeremy Guthrie (5-2, 3.49) and since Aug. 8 of last year they are 16-4 behind their wins leader for a net profit of +$1,358.
Guthrie is 3-0 at home this season and since Aug. 14, 2012 the Royals are a perfect 10-0 when Guthrie pitches at Kaufmann, evidenced in this MLB betting report with SDQL:
It’s hard to give a recommendation without knowing the line but the Royals have outscored opponents 4.7 to 1.7 during Guthrie’s streak of dominance. As long as the line isn’t outrageous we’ll consider backing KC to find a rare W.