Pick Sixty’s prop department was working overtime to come up with the best side bets to add even more excitement to the Seahawks vs. Patriots matchup!
As is the case every year, Super Bowl XLIX (49 for those us that can’t get past 10 in Roman Numerals) provides a superb “all you can bet buffet” of prop wagers ranging from team props to individual player props to halftime props and everything in between. There are hundreds, if not thousands of combinations to choose from. We’re going to filter out the good ones from the bad and break down a few of the prop bets that we like to hit.
We’re going to stay away from any of the prop bets that rely solely on chance and represent a pure “gamble”. You know things like betting on ‘heads’ or ‘tails’ for the coin flip or “Which color Gatorade will the winning team dump on their coach?”. We’ll leave these prop wagers for the gambling purists and focus our attention on handicapped props.
The best way to find the props that make the most sense to you is to go with your analysis of the game and then see what matches up. For example, if you like both teams to have success running the ball then a variety of rushing props should be your bet. Same goes for passing completions or passing yards if you like either Tom Brady or Russell Wilson to light it up. Based on all of the “sharp” action that came in on the under when the line was first posted, you might consider several defensive props as well if you like the D to dominate on both sides of the ball.
Let’s start things off with a penalty prop. The Seahawks don’t bring much of a pass rush (17th in sack percentage, 19th in sacks per game) but they have had success against pocket passers. Considering Seattle’s tenacity on D and their propensity to take penalties, I think they’ll definitely take a shot at Brady early in the game so I really like the prop for ‘Roughing the passer penalty? Yes +120’. Seattle has shown all year that they’re not afraid to take a 15 yarder to send a message to the opposing team. On the New England side, I could easily see a late hit on Wilson after one of his scrambling plays.
Our favorite player props revolve around the New England offense. Given that Seattle has an injured secondary, I think we’re going to see a lot of passing out of the Pats today, especially early on. And given they have the biggest and most dangerous weapon in Rob Gronkowski and that Seattle’s D has struggled with tight ends this year, I expect Gronk to have a big day. Let’s start with a ‘Gronkowski OVER 5.5 receptions’ at -160.
Moving along, I like New England to use Brandon LaFell and Shane Vereen quite a bit today so I’m going with ‘Julien Edelman UNDER 6.5 receptions’ at -110 for another prop wager. All it’s going to take is one bone crushing hit from Kam Chancellor in the first quarter and Edelman won’t be running too many more slants over the middle.
The third player prop I like is the ‘LeGarrette Blount UNDER 15.5 rushing attempts’ at -130. His performance against a shoddy Colts D was overrated and Bill Belichick has repeatedly shown that he won’t necessarily go back to the same thing twice so expect lots of different weapons to be included in the New England attack. For our final player prop let’s go with Brady’s number of pass attempts.
[quote_text color=”#000000″ text_color=”#ffffff”]In four Super Bowls that followed a bye week, Tom Brady attempted 42.5 passes per game[/quote_text]
New England attempted 38.6 on the season and during his career he’s averaged 36.5 with a week of rest. In the golden era of scoring, Brady’s post-bye average has increased to 37.3, seen with this SDQL link from SportsDatabase.com: Tom Brady:PY > 50 and week = p:week + 2 and season >= 2012
PLAYER PROP RECAP
Gronkowski OVER 5.5 completions (-160)
Edelman UNDER 6.5 receptions (-110)
Blount UNDER 15.5 rushing attempts (-130)
Brady OVER 36.5 pass attempts (-160)
KEEP IT CLOSE
Overall, I think this could be a tightly contested game between two relatively even teams, both with great coaches and tons of talent on both sides of the ball. In the end, it wouldn’t surprise me to see this won by a field goal so that’s where I’m going to play a couple more props.
Tri bet prop: Either team to win by 5 or less points (+188)
Seattle OVER 2 field goals (+250)
One last football related prop for us this year is to play the highest scoring quarter. Typically, the second quarter is favored every year and for the past 16-straight Super Bowls it’s actually been the fourth quarter that was the highest scoring. Let’s roll with it!
Play the fourth quarter as the highest scoring (+200)
BECAUSE IT’S KATY PERRY
Let’s throw a couple of halftime props in to keep us focused on Katy Perry. If you look at the song chart for her Prismatic World Tour, she’s opened with “Roar” every time. Why change this now in the biggest concert she’s ever performed? Stick with what she knows and play Roar +130. As a follow-up, let’s go with a prop about her attire as well. If you saw her presser this past week, you know she likes to play up the football angle with a sexy flare. I know it’s chalky but I gotta go with Katy Perry to wear a dress or a skirt -175.
As always, shop around because not all books offer the same props and not all books offer the same props at the same prices. Good luck to everyone and enjoy the game!