The weather forecast for Super Bowl 48 has been a talking point for NFL handicapping types since preseason football but as we countdown the final days to kickoff, the threat of rain, snow and cold is starting to fade. We update the forecast along with our predictions for how the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos game will play out
“Don’t trust the weatherman,” was a popular phrase in the eighties but with all the technology available today, how could they be wrong? Well, they are still wrong every once in a while but as of Monday it looks like Mother Nature plans to co-operate for Super Bowl XLVIII and for anyone planning to bet the over, this might be the last chance to grab a 47. The Over/Under betting number opened at 47.5 and was bet up with some online books but the combination of Seattle’s defense and potential weather concerns anchored it back by a point at several outlets.
Checking the 10-day Super Bowl forecast for East Rutherford, New Jersey we can see a 0- to 20-percent chance of precipitation from Tuesday through Monday (Feb. 3) and temperatures in the low 20s which will rise into the high-30s for kickoff. Wind, which is often the hardest element to predict, is expected to stay relatively calm into next week with a longterm gameday forecast of 10 mph.
GIVE ME SOMETHING GOOD!
So now that the Super Bowl weather concerns have been put to rest it’s time to get down to some real business: `Capping the game, betting the side/total and picking a few props
We already released our ATS play on the Seattle Seahawks +3 (-115) and that line is still available at Sports Interaction but the majority of other sports betting shops have culled back to Broncos -2. One theory is that they don’t want to get middled by sharp bettors who jumped on the Broncos (+1) early. Our take is that the line will eventually move up to Denver (-3) and possibly even higher once the late flood of public betting money comes in from the Peyton Manning fan club, but only time will tell.
The Seahawks’ road record off a bye is a less than spectacular 5-12 SU (2-12-2 ATS) with 12 overs and 5 unders but this year off a bye they twice ripped the Saints, 34-7 in Week 13 and 23-15 in the Division Finals. Seattle should find a way to score points in this game but it’s also worth noting that 33 of the previous 47 Super Bowls (70-percent) saw 10 or fewer points scored in the first quarter. For over bettors that suggests a potential strategy of waiting, watching and then “live” betting the “Over” at a reduced price pending a slow start. But even against the Hawks, do you want to bet that Manning can’t strike for at least seven in the opening frame?
[quote_text color=”#000000″ text_color=”#ffffff”]Denver scored at least one first quarter touchdown in 13 of 18 games this season including five of eight road games[/quote_text]
The first quarter Super Bowl odds are Denver -.5 and O/U 9.5 with small juice on the “Under”. Seattle road games averaged just 5.5 points in the first quarter this season and the only team to cross the goal line was Indy, en route to a 34-28 win. The Hawks were dealing with injuries at the time and that was the second of back-to-back road games following a dramatic, overtime comeback effort against the Texans in Week 4. Don’t expect to see Denver putting up 34 in this contest.
St. Louis, Atlanta, San Francisco and the New York Giants averaged just 9.5 total points against this stout Seattle D in road games during the second half of the season. Yes, Manning will lead the Broncos into double-digits on Super Bowl Sunday but our estimate is for a slower start, second-half fireworks from both teams and then a turnover or two being the difference. We have the Hawks winning straight-up and for that to happen either Russell Wilson (+300) or Marshawn Lynch (+500) will be named Super Bowl MVP. There’s your props; more on this game throughout the week.
SUPER BOWL PICKS: RECAP
Seahawks +3 (-115)
First quarter Under 9.5 (-115)
MVP = Russell Wilson (+300)
MVP = Marshawn Lynch (+500)