Super Bowl 54 Pick and Preview

Super Bowl 54 is setting up like one of the ultimate marquee matchups, with Patrick Mahomes squaring off against the vaunted San Francisco 49ers D.

Super Bowl 54 MVP fave Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes +120 is the odds-on fave to win Super Bowl MVP

Super Bowl 54 Odds
San Francisco vs. Kansas City (-1.5 and O/U 54)

Super Bowl 54 is going to be a great game and there are countless scenarios in play. Start with the coaching. Niners HC Kyle Shanahan has 25 career SU wins. Small dogs with his experience are 0-6 SU/ATS in neutral site games, getting outscored 25-12. The two previous Super Bowl dogs in this scenario lost by margins of 4 and 10 points.


My take is that Patrick Mahomes and Chiefs HC Andy Reid are the now generation’s edition of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. We all know San Fran can run the football, averaging 167.5 RYPG in their past five.

You want to know how veteran HC Belichick did as a fave vs. teams that could run the football?

According to my data he was 51-10 SU and 34-25-2 ATS (58%). As a small fave, he and Brady went 6-1 SU/ATS.

In the passing era, the record for New England got even better. During the playoffs, Belichick went 5-1 SU, the only loss being to the Titans this year when New England had its worst set of offensive weaponry in the Brady era.

Belichick’s record in this profile since 2016 was 22-2 SU and 17-6-1 ATS (74%). When the posted total was 48 or more, the Pats went 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS.

Reid in this situation went 6-3 SU and outscored opponents 32-25. In games where Mahomes threw for more than 275 yards KC went 6-1 SU. The only loss coming to the LA Rams in Week 11 last year on Monday Night Football, on the road. The average score in those games was 33-23 and the Rams were the only team that scored more than 24 points against KC.

Super Bowl 54 Prop Shop: Patrick Mahomes’ passing yard prop for Super Bowl 54 is set at 299.5 (OV -123)!


Veteran coaches like Reid and Belichick, beyond the Wild Card Round, are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS vs. novice HCs with a strong running attack, outscoring them 33-19. Only two of the winning teams scored less than 31 points. Conversely, only two of the losers scored more than 24.

When the total was more than 47, the winners in this scenario went 7-0 SU/ATS (36-19 avg).

The posted team totals as of today are 26.5 and 27.5 with a slight advantage to Kansas City.


One of my proprietary SDQL systems looks at how teams do in high profile matchups. KC wasn’t performing exceptionally well during 2018 but since Week 11 this year, the ‘Big Game Factor’ for KC is off the charts!

Super Bowl 54 SDQL Systems

According to the Pick Sixty Big Game Factor, KC should win this game by at least a TD!

San Francisco’s run game has received high praise and for good reason. The Niners were second in total rushing yards this season and took top spot in rushing TDs.

RB Raheem Mostert led the way with 220 rushing yards in the win over Green Bay, but history is against the Niners in this scenario. Playoff dogs off a bye whose lead RB went for more than 110 RY in their recent win are 0-4 SU/ATS, getting outscored 27-19. The latest example was Seattle vs. New England in Super Bowl 49. Aka, the Close but no Cigar Bowl (sorry Seahawk fans).

And speaking of Pete Carroll’s infamous Beast Mode Blunder, here is another “live” system against San Fran. We’re looking at point per game averages into the big game. For Super Bowl 54, San Fran weighs in at 30.2 PPG and KC 29.8. The past 18 Super Bowl teams with an edge in this department went 4-14 ATS, losing by 6 PPG SU and 8 PPG ATS.

My money for Super Bowl 54 is on Kansas City and I bought it down to a half-point line at -122. I’ve also played a prop on Mahomes to win MVP (+120), discussed @PickSixtySports. For my third play, I took a 1.5 unit bet on the first quarter staying “Under” 10 points. Like so many heavyweight fights in the past, this one could start off with sparring.

Super Bowl 54 Best Bet: Take the Chiefs

Thanks for a great season everyone. We’ll be around throughout the spring and summer with NHL, MLB and CFL picks as we wait patiently for September to roll around. Best of luck today and enjoy the game.