The New England Patriots are “live” in a league-wide Over/Under betting angle for Super Bowl 51 that has hit 10-straight times!
The Super Bowl trends and data for Sunday’s matchup between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons are likely going to set a new record this year for ‘availability’. It is information overload at its finest and wading through it while the resisting the urge to make impulsive wagers takes a special kind of discipline.
My biggest play for Super Bowl 51 is on the “Over” 58 and my secondary play is on the Patriots to cover but I’ve got way more confidence in the total. Here are a few notes and playoff trends backed by SDQL from the Sports Database. Wherever applicable, I’ve made reference to Super Bowl 51 trends but keep in mind, the data only goes back to 2002.
SUPER BOWL 51: REPEAT CUSTOMERS
Throughout the season I like to keep tabs on the reigning Super Bowl champs to try and spot line value in certain situations. Today we’ve got the champs from two years ago so I decided to run some numbers and the data suggests this game could generate some fireworks.
Since the 2006-07 NFL Conference Finals, there is an angle on recent Super Bowl champs that has resulted in 10-straight overs for all playoff games beyond the Wild Card Round. These games went over by an avg 15 PPG and 9 of 10 broke the 50-point barrier (59.4 PPG avg).
GOT YOUR NUMBER
The Pats have won four-straight games against Atlanta and Bill Belichick’s record vs. teams he’s been dominating is solid. Laying points against teams with a soft defense, the Hood is 27-8 SU and 19-15-1 ATS with 20 overs and 15 unders.
As a fave of -3 points or less he went 3-0 SU/ATS and as a fave of -4 or less he’s 6-1 O/U. In playoff games, Belichick is 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS and 3-2 O/U and all five were at home. Three of five games ended with 50+ points. In all games, the Pats outscored their opponents 30 to 18.
SUPER BOWL 51 SYSTEM
On Saturday afternoon I tweeted a Super Bowl betting tip suggesting the Falcons were “live” in my SDQL Super Bowl system, created in 2016. It won with Denver over Carolina and the official play for this year is on Atlanta +3. The Falcons have a 13-10 edge over New England in the database system, which goes against my actual bet on the Pats, but I’m happy publishing the forecast ahead of time as this new system develops.
One of the departments Atlanta has an edge in is QB sacks. The Falcons currently rank 8th with 40 sacks including playoffs but their season average is only 2.22 (15th). New England has 37 total for a 2.06 average. The playoff sweet spot for small faves/dogs with an advantage vs. a low sack opponent is 15-4-1 ATS and totals greater than 45 went 9-1 O/U. Killer Sports offers a complete look at this list of games and keep in mind, this is just one of nearly 50 SDQL that make up this developmental system.
WHEN THE FAT LADY SINGS
I’ve written several articles for this game at EveryEdge and the new Winfo sports betting mag. There is nothing left to do at this point but wait for the action to get underway and then hopefully, count our money. Good luck with the game and make sure you take the time to enjoy everything as it unfolds. I’ll look forward to another good season in 2017 and hope to see you around.
Super Bowl Best Bet: Patriots and Falcons Over 58 points
Smaller ATS Prediction: New England to cover
First Quarter Prop: Take the Under 13 points