NFL playoff system highlights several SDQL trends suggesting that Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers could be overvalued in their quest for the Lombardi against Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos
NFL playoff teams that had anywhere from 7-10 ATS wins the previous season have likely made bettors a good deal of money during their current run but they are often overvalued come January-February because of this season’s success.
Take the Carolina Panthers for instance. They were sitting at 8-8-1 SU last season following a Wild Card win over Arizona and riding a wicked five-game streak before getting unceremoniously dumped in Seattle, 31-17 during the Division Finals. The Panthers finished at 8-10 ATS; seven of those wins coming during the regular season.
In 2015, all the Panthers have done thus far is pad bettor’s pockets with 13 ATS victories including recent statement games over Seattle and Arizona. They were lined at -2.5 and -3 for those contests but the early Super Bowl line of -3 or -3.5 was chased up to -5.5 or -6 thanks to heavy public demand. It’s reported that there is roughly 70-74-percent action for Sunday’s game riding on the chalk.
CAROLINA: THIS YEAR’S PLAYOFF DARLINGS
‘Playoff Darling’ is a perfect description for the Panthers but this line seems a bit steep given that they are playing on a neutral field against the league’s No. 1 defense. In this profile, teams that won an average number of games ATS one year (7 to 10) and are now favored have a 39-58-4 ATS record (40-percent), based on an average line of -5.5 points. These favorites show a losing ATS record in each round of the playoffs and are 2-5 ATS in the Super Bowl, getting outscored 26-22 on average. Access this free SDQL profile at SportsDatabase.com!
More than 30-percent of the games in this playoff betting system were totalled between 44 and 48 points (Super Bowl 50 total is 45). The fave’s record in those 32 games was 16-16 SU and 8-22-2 ATS (27-percent) including a 0-2 ATS record in Super Bowls, with both games finishing over the total. Also note that of the seven true road teams in this O/U range, excluding Super Bowls, only one was able to cover (1-5-1 ATS) and with any total, away faves of more than -3 points were 0-4 ATS. The combined record for true road faves and Super Bowl (neutral) faves laying more than -3 points was 1-9 ATS.
SUPER BOWL BETTING STRATEGY
A couple of my top recommended books are currently posting Super Bowl odds of Carolina -6 points and I’ve booked one unit on the underdog Broncos to cover. My gameplan is to watch line movement over the next few days and if the number goes to -6.5 or -7, I will likely increase my stake. It’s very easy to get wrapped up in the hype of the Super Bowl, investing more than you might typically wager on one game but it’s always good to keep things in perspective. Make a plan for the total amount you would like to invest on sides, totals, props and other contests (Super Bowl parties, prop bets) — and stick to it. It’s good to have fun with this game but the bottom line is that you’ve got to make some money, or at least put yourself in position to do so.