NFL Wild Card prediction for the New York Giants and Green Bay Packers
The New York Giants are at Lambeau Field Sunday for Wild Card matchup with the Green Bay Packers. Odds makers opened Green Bay at -4 and as expected, the Aaron Rodgers fan club has moved the line as far as -5.5 for game day. The total is also moving up as bettors anticipate a big day for A-Rod and his talented group of receivers.
NEW YORK AT GREEN BAY
Line: Packers -5.5 and O/U 45.5
Green Bay’s hot streak that earned them division title certainly deserves recognition but the Pack are batting 0-6 ATS as a playoff fave from -4 to -8. It’s that little grey area where the voice of straight-up America says, “The playoff team that wins straight-up usually covers anyway”.
They’re right, to some degree. Straight-up winners do cover 81-percent ATS in the playoffs but first you’ve got to remember, 34-percent of those straight-up winners were underdogs. Another 29-percent were laying -4 points or less and then you’ve got the huge faves like Pittsburgh whose wins make up another 10-percent. Guess what I’m saying is that only 27-percent of straight-up playoff winners come from chalk in the grey zone. Remember that.
Green Bay’s offense stands superior to the Giants based on full season performance and that’s why we’re getting such a generous portion of points but the past 20 Wild Card teams against offenses as inefficient as New York’s are just 4-14-2 ATS.
On the other side of the ball we have a Giants D ranked second overall that helped generate the lowest Over/Under margin in the league this season (-8.62). Green Bay was the highest at +4.03 and road teams with the advantage here are 13-4 ATS. When the total was 40 or more, the road team has gone 9-1 ATS in the past 10.
NYG are coming in off a nice looking road win that extinguished their division rival’s playoff hopes and although they lost to Philly the previous week, New York won back-to-back games vs. Detroit and Dallas before that. They are 1-7 O/U In their past 8, outscoring teams 18.6 to 15, and this setup for teams with some momentum is 10-5 ATS in the playoffs since 2004. The past 12 games went 1-11 O/U and a lower scoring game would certainly help New York’s chances with the cover.
The fact these teams met in the regular season favors the road dog and more recently, the record gets even stronger. Non-divisional games getting points in this spot are on a 15-6 ATS run. People think NY can’t run the ball and the truth is that they COULDN’T run the ball early in the season. Injuries to RB and O-Line got in the way of that. The past eight games, NY has hit triple digit RY six times and their D in that span is allowing an avg of just 310 TY per game.
In the first two rounds of the playoffs, road dogs on grass that fit this exact profile are 5-3 SU/ATS and all eight games stayed under the number. The avg total score was just 15-19 in for the fave and in the past six games, the road dog actually won straight-up five times. These teams were dogs of +5.1 avg PPG, just like the Giants.
New York fits a time of possession profile for road teams that is on a perfect 9-0 ATS run in the Wild Card Round and seven of the eight straight-up winners were getting points. I found New York at +6 (-114) and tweeted it out @PickSixtySports. Shop for you best line and good luck with the dog.
Pick: Take the Giants to cover