Pick Sixty’s football betting lineup is loaded for game day with an ATS side from Denver at New England, three team totals and four Over/Under flat bets as we look to continue the three-week winning streak!
The game that everyone wants to hear about is the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots today and we’ll start with the Foxboro weather forecast which calls for continued rain and snow this afternoon, high’s around 40 and winds between 20-25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Perfect fall weather for big clash between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. The line opened at Denver -3.5 but New England money dragged it down to -3 early in the week and a few Bronco bettors were able to get in on the road fave -2.5 (-135) at its best.
Online NFL odds for the total are at 53.5 and mid-season, these games between two highly talented teams have produced an avg of 56.7 PPG, clearing the total on average by nearly nine PPG. I think in this week’s case, the book has made the appropriate adjustments. These two offenses are certainly capable of putting up big numbers and so far this season, five of six games in this profile have hit 55 points or more (5-1 O/U), with two landing dead on ‘55’.
Denver has the edge in yards per play, points per play, completion percentage and third downs converted but the one that stands out the most could be red zone scoring percentage. The Broncos are converting on 83-percent of their red zone opportunities to New England’s 55-percent. The Pats have recorded more games with high red zone opportunities, five to Denver’s three, but not one of the opponents New England marched against ranks in the top 10 for overall defense. Here’s a list with defensive ranking:
New York Jets: 17
We’ve got the Broncos ranked second overall for defense and they are third against the pass, third against the rush and holding opponents to just 4.7 points per play which is best in the league. This should be a close game and if it wasn’t for the weather we may have simply bet the “Over” and walked away but when it all boiled down, out best bet was on the road fave.
Pick: Take the Broncos -3
WEEK 9 NFL PICKS
Here are the rest of our predictions for Week 9 along with links to our Totally Covered feature where you’ll find in-depth write-ups for three of the predictions.
Dolphins First-half Team Total UNDER 11.5 (+105): When a team starts slow on the road and ends up losing a high scoring game like the Chargers at Broncos last week, the gameplan needs to change. The Chargers get a big falloff in class from Manning down to Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins are certainly one of the slower starting teams in the league since HC Joe Philbin took over. San Diego only allows its opponents to score 8.7 first-half points in the early bodyclock spot and half the teams were held scoreless through the first 15 minutes.
We also have the Raiders and Seahawks going “Over” 42.5, the Sunday Nighter “Over” 48 and the Colts Team Total on Monday going “Over” 27 points.
TC’s top pick is on the Arizona Cardinals Team Total OVER 21 points at Dallas (click the link for details!). Our Quick Sixty plays for Week 9 are on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Cleveland Browns “Over” 43 (-117) and the Philadelphia Eagles and Houston Texans “Over” 48 (-118).