We used the SDQL database for refining high percentage, winning NFL systems each week but sometimes it pays to keep it simple
A friend of mine used to run the Monday Night Football festivities at a local tavern and between the cards, pools and side betting there was always a lot of action to be found amongst the patrons. “Charlie”, let’s call him, was in like Flynn on every one of these small stake, random contests but he was a handicapper and always liked having a larger flat bet on the games to make things interesting. His theory was that since the owner of the bar picked up his entire bar tab every week, he was already playing with house money. Charlie only hit about 50-percent of his primetime wagers but that was good enough for him.
One night I asked Big C what he had on the game. It was Week 8 of the 2010 season, Houston was playing at Indy and the Colts were favored. The total was a monstrous ’51.5’ and Charlie was on the under. My play was on the Colts to cover and just out of curiosity I asked what drew him to towards the total. “Simple,” he said. “Last night’s game went under.”
By ‘last night’, Chuck was referring to the Steelers and Saints game, a 20-10 win for New Orleans which finished 15 points below the number.
“That’s it?” I asked. And Charlie kind of laughed and took a big pull off his Bud bottle and said, “Yeah, it’s simple and it works.”
At that point, the crowd had started to pick up and Charlie had to go do his thing. But I’ll never forget that conversation and how could I? The game stayed under and from that game on, the “system” went 3-1 the rest of the season.
Other than it being a complete coincidence, the only correlation I can draw between back-to-back Sunday and Monday night unders is that the betting public loves to bet primetime games and they are generally drawn towards favorites and the over. After losing money on Sunday, the chase is on so to speak. Perhaps Monday night totals, which often times open at an already inflated price, are bet up high enough that the odds now truly favor a play on the under.
This week while running some numbers I decided to check back on the last couple seasons and note the results for old Chuck’s ‘stronger than dirt’ primetime system. Here are the records since 2010 for betting the Monday game under following every Sunday night under:
2010: 2 overs and 5 unders
2011: 1 over and 3 unders
2012: 4 overs and 4 unders
2013: 2 overs and 4 unders
In four years that’s a record of 9 overs and 16 unders; a 64-percent win rate for Monday “Under” bettors. This year we’ve graded two pushes on Sunday night games (Week’s 1 and 3) but if you happened to get the under on either game, your record the following day would be 1-1. Just for the sake of argument I looked at general Sunday/Monday night trends in the same time frame. This SDQL code from SportsDatabase.com shows the results:
SDQL Text: season >= 2010 and (SNF or MNF) and H
Home teams are 80-57 SU and 73-61-3 ATS with a 55-percent hit rate on the “Over”. Home faves and the “Over” have both cashed around 56-percent showing that Joe Pub ain’t that square after all and the top pointspread range is found backing home faves between -4.5 and -7.5 points (22-5-1 ATS or 82-percent). 6-point teasers on the sizable home faves are 24-4 ATS (86-percent) so if you’re looking to hookup an early line for next week, perhaps these supposedly square plays have some merit after all.
Circle the Packers in Week 10 and the Saints in Week 12 as our next primetime home faves in the hotspot.