Seahawks at Packers, SDQL Trends with Benefits

The Seahawks at Packers get underway at 6:40 pm ET today and we have SDQL trends & betting tips from the matchup, along with our Best Bet!
Seahawks at Packers previewPlayoff dogs are 12-2-1 ATS in the SDQL trend highlighted in our Seahawks at Packers preview!

SEAHAWKS AT PACKERS
Line: Green Bay -4.5 and O/U 45

The Seattle Seahawks missed their shot at hosting a playoff game when they lost to San Francisco in Week 17. Seattle was forced to go on the road for the Wild Card Round and if they hope to face the Niners again, they’ll need a second road win against a rested Packers squad.

Green Bay won five-straight down the stretch, holding all five teams to 20 points or less. Some of the competition was weaker than prison coffee, but a win’s a win. In big games, the Packers were 2-3 ATS during the second half of 2019. They also went 0-4-1 O/U in those games, getting outscored 21-17 thanks to that stinker in San Fran. It’s legit to think that Green Bay will score 20 in this game but it’s hard to picture them holding Seattle to less than 17.

Seattle has a -30.75 DPS of late, finishing south of their projected team total in four of their past five games. Getting points on road grass with a total of 44+, playoff road teams like this are 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS, outscoring their opponents 26-20. Use the following SDQL text for a breakdown. Stats are courtesy of the best free Sports Database on the net.

tS(dps, N=5) < -5 and PO and A and line >= -1 and surface = grass and total >= 44

Seattle was called for 11 penalties in last week’s win over Philly, netting 114 PENY. Philly only had 45 PENY. The following SDQL trend displays the data:

PO and p:PO and p:PENY > 72 and D and line > 3

Playoff dogs getting more than 3 points are 12-2-1 ATS after a high PY game and the two ATS losers were getting +8.5 and +12.5. Between 3-8, the dogs were 9-0-1 ATS.

Defense Wins Championships

While Seattle’s offense has underperformed of late, we’re confident Russell Wilson can get them in gear. The D, on the other hand, will really need to step up their game. The past three games, Seattle DPA has gone 7/1.2/-12.8 and on the road, they’ve actually followed a similar pattern. Including road games in Wks 14-15 (plus WC round), Seattle went 4.8/2.0/-12.8.

Road teams in our DPA hot range are 15-8-1 ATS (65%)

Division final road teams in this profile are 7-3 ATS, with dogs up to +5 points going 6-1 SU/ATS. The trend I see with these teams is solid starts, outscoring opponents in both the first and second quarter (15.3-7.8 combined). Seattle went 8-1 SU on the road this season and they outscored opponents every quarter except the fourth.

Green Bay is a classic fourth quarter comeback team and as a NDIV CHF, Aaron Rodgers has outscored opponents 31-21, holding an edge in each and every quarter. At home against the Seahawks he is 4-0 SU/ATS and he held a double-digit half-time lead in 3 of 4. The Seattle offense went 10-17-10-9 in those games so the question is, “Can Seattle score more than 17 points in this game?” I think the answer is yes.

Seahawks at Packers Best Bet

The NFL season is a war of attrition that turns a lot of teams into non-contenders. We saw it with Philly last week and I am concerned with the injuries throughout Seattle’s lineup. The O-Line and run game are shells of their former self. The thing about Seattle’s O-Line is that it has never really been all that good. Duane Brown and George Fant are game-time decisions but this offense will live and die with Wilson.

Marshawn Lynch is in the spotlight but we also need a breakout game from Travis Homer. The rookie out of Miami averaged 6.0 yards per catch in his senior year and he’s at 5.0 yards in 2019. He’s hauled in 11 of 13 targets and could act as a nice diversion for Wilson when he’s under pressure and looking for a dump off. Lynch will need also need to be special so Seattle can maintain some drives and keep their D off the field.

Wilson’s completion percentage at Philly was only 60%, well below his 8th ranked 65.6 CP from the entire season. Away off a game where he completed a lower percentage than his average, Wilson is 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS this year, including an outright win at SF this year when Seattle was a 6.5-point dog. Overall scoring for this trend was 23-19 in favor of Seattle.

The Seahawks also qualify for a nice win-percentage system that is 59% ATS. In the two rounds, there is a slight increase in ATS WP for single-digit dogs like Seattle. Finally, I’ll note that the record for division final road dogs off a low scoring game is 16-6 ATS. The Seahawks at Packers should be a close one. In the end, I’m taking the points.

Pick Sixty Trend Tips: Take the Seahawks

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