One of our systems from the Killer Sports Annual is live in this week’s NFL lineup!
Over the summer I spent a lot of time looking at key indicators for O-Line success to try and improve my handicapping and use of the SDQL. I used general offensive numbers (total yardage, third down conversions) and QB sacks allowed. I looked at ‘opponent’ numbers to identify good matchups, and then I factored in ‘rest’, ‘site’ and previous season stats to make sure all the early season plays weren’t just flukes.
The system was explained in detail on page 25 of the KillerSports.com NFL Annual, available free anytime at their home page. The theory is to use certain SDQL to try and identify potential plays and then take a closer look at the injury reports, line and setup for each team.
There are two major components to the system:
1. Previous Season Stats (that qualify a team)
2. Current Season Stats
Part 1 went 2-1 ATS in Wk 1 and 4-2 ATS in Wk 2 (6-3 ATS overall). The first nine teams so far this year are outscoring opponents 29-22 on an avg line of -3.4.
It’s ghosting “live” on four plays for Wk 3 and I ran all the checks on current season form, opponent, site, surface, rest, etc. The four plays to consider were TB, NYJ, CHI and CAR.
On an initial check, the only team that gets crossed off right away is CHI because they are allowing too many QB sacks per game (4.0). The three others are allowing 2.0 or less (SDQL Text: tA(o:sacks) @ team and season=2016).
I like the fact that TB, NYJ and CAR are all playing on grass this weekend (surface advantage) and the Jets get an extra nod because they have a rest advantage over KC (played on TNF in Wk 2). That’s another thing going against CHI; they are off MNF. Also, they are at Cowboy Stadium which is artificial.
Query No. 2 is 4-3 ATS and 4-2-1 O/U so far in 2016. The potentially “live” plays in Wk 3 are ARI, TB, DAL and CAR. Identify teams with the following SDQL code at Sports Database:
tA(TY) > 335 and tA(o:sacks) < 2.5 and season = 2016 and oA(TY) <= 335
DAL is conflicting with CHI, who were “live” in part 1 but crossed off right away. I’m actually leaning towards the “Over” 44 in this game.
ARI has a rest disadvantage with BUF, its non-conference and artificial surface, so NP
TB is “live” in both angles (part 1 & 2) and they are coming off a lashing in Arizona. Although the Rams are stout on D, I don’t have any confidence in their offense to play on the road. I’m going to consider TB in a 6-point teaser.
CAR is also “live” in both angles (part 1 & 2) and they are playing on grass but the fact they are home has led to a big line. CAR also has a divisional game on-deck and MIN has a good D with a capable offense. Perhaps the Cats would be a good tease to T-Bay?
NFL SYSTEM PICK OF THE WEEK
I was leaning to the Jets and the “Under” in their Week 3 game at Kansas City so after noticing them “live” in this system, decided to book it at +3 points. It looks like most of their injured offensive players will start and on the D side, LB Erin Henderson (foot) and LB David Harris (shoulder) are listed as questionable.
The Jets rank high in my O-Line and defensive front seven stats and they are “live” in a system for road teams off a game where they had zero QB sacks following a game where they had more than 5 sacks. This angle is 14-5-1 ATS including a solid 10-1-1 ATS record for the pups. Dogs of -3 or less went 5-2 SU. Shop around and you can find the Jets at even money.
System Pick: Take the Jets
Sorry for the short form on the team names, it’s just been a long week of capping and there are only so many hours in the day. Contact me @PickSixtySports if you have any questions about this or any other NFL system.