Our football betting system this week looks at an ATS angle hitting 68-percent plus two NFL picks, our Grey Cup prediction and a basketball betting trend “live” from tonight’s Chicago Bulls at Portland Trailblazers game
Penalties can have one of the biggest impacts on field position during a football game and getting caught one too many times is a big reason why Tampa Bay (2-8 SU), Houston (2-8 SU) and Cleveland (4-6 SU), three of the most heavily penalized teams in the league, have a combined record of 8-22 SU and 11-19 against the spread. The caveat to this sample is that two more highly penalized teams, Seattle (10-1 SU) and Cincinnati (7-4 SU) are leading their division by a wide margin. They also have a distinct home field advantage (both are 5-0 SU) and with superior talent to the first three teams, not to mention most opponents they face, the Seahawks and Bengals can afford to make a few mistakes and still get away with a ‘W’.
This week’s system looks at the performance of teams who were careless one week and now have to travel without rest to face a competitive opponent (click link to view the complete list of games):
The above code breaks down into road team (A) who is not coming off bye (t:NB) and had more than 13 accepted penalties against in their previous week. The ‘tight’ line parameter is captured in the end and reads “that our team is not laying more than -4 points or getting back more than +3 points”. The Sports Database history shows a 15-29 SU record for these road warriors and a 13-28-3 mark ATS.
Two teams fit this profile in Week 12 and they are the Denver Broncos (-2) at New England and the Chicago Bears who are small dogs in St. Louis (-1.5). We don’t have an official play for the Bears-Rams game but the Pats getting points at home is too good to pass up.
Grab the Patriots +2 as this week’s SDQL System Play
GREY CUP PREDICTION, EARLY NFL PICKS
The tension is rising in Regina, Saskatchewan for this year’s CFL betting showpiece and early wagering trends suggest that Over/Under betting has stabilized at 53. One reason might be the updated CFL weather forecast for Sunday that suggests temperatures could now climb above 32 degrees (0 Celsius) for kickoff. We played UNDER 54 in our Grey Cup Odds, Early Picks – Ti-Cats vs. Roughriders feature four days ago and will stand by that play.
As expected, Grey Cup money on the side favors the Riders and sports betting sites are now offering them at -6.5 or even -7 with reduced juice. Our suggestion if you are still looking to play the under is to shop for the best available line and consider watching gameday line moves that often swing up on public money.
We’ve also had a lot of activity this week for both CFL and NFL betting over at the new Pick Sixty facebook page. The two early NFL predictions for the week are on the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants UNDER 47 and Tampa Bay Bucs at Detroit Lions OVER 48.5.
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NBA BETTING TIP by SDQL
If you’re not already signed up for the free NBA Daily Tipsheet by KillerSports.com you need to have a look at one of the hot trends from today’s report that is hitting 10-and-Oh since 1995. It’s “live” on the Chicago Bulls who are getting +3.5 points in Portland Friday and the first thing we want to point out is that the Portland Trailblazers are netting 28.7-percent of their points from three-point land. That’s fourth highest in the league and their last game, a 91-82 win against Milwaukee, Portland was 11 for 31 from downtown. Now they’re back home after a successful four-game tour and laying points against a Bulls team who are not happy over last night’s loss in Denver.
The Blazers can’t cover the chalk when coming off a road win where they relied so heavily on the three and last game was 32.2-percent. Look for the Bulls to bounce back and get a cover tonight in Portlandia.
Pick: Take the Bulls