NHL teams without rest are struggling and the odds at Sports Data Query Language show a moneyline profit of more than $3,000 on this simple handicapping profile from this season alone!
Researching ice hockey systems on a cold Sunday afternoon would definitely rank high on our Pick Sixty Sports Top 10 List for things to do once football season is over and today we dug into a profile that is hitting 65-percent with more than 200 plays from the 2014 season alone.
The angle is simple: Find teams in a back-to-back and then make sure their opponent is playing with at least one day of rest. The SDQL code for such an angle at SportsDatabase.com is rest > 0 and o:rest = 0 and season = 2014
Teams in this profile are 133-72 this season with an average line of -154 (+$3,194) and when you have so few parameters built into a system there is a sure bet the SDQL will produce a list of games that are coming “live” in the days ahead. In fact, this week alone the code shows 10 games on the docket including today’s matchup between the Washington Capitals and Anaheim Ducks.
In the past week this angle has produced a 10-1 record, bolstered by a 5-0 mark on Saturday. It’s helped rank February as the most profitable month of the season (16-7 or .696 WP) but with an average line of -159 this month, it’s not as easy as just loading up the juice rocket and firing away. Not for me anyway. Moneyline bets like that burn a hole in your online betting account faster than the pyromaniac scamdicapper’s ‘Lock of the Century’ club!
Here’s a closer look at the Caps-Ducks matchup with a few handicapping techniques you can apply towards other games this week.
CAPS at DUCKS IN A BACK-TO-BACK
Anaheim is home today off a five-game road trip where they went 2-2-1, earning five of a possible 10 points. They finished with a 2-1 win at Carolina Thursday and also started off the trip with a ‘W’ at Nashville (5-2). The NHL’s regular season wins leader (38), Nashville also leads the league in goals against average at home (2.07) and the Ducks became the first team to score more than three at the Bridgestone Arena all season. By comparison, Washington is tied for the fifth lowest GAA on the road this season (2.69) while the Ducks rank 15th in home scoring at 2.5 goals per game (GPG).
Two scenarios we want to look at right away are A. Ducks on extra rest and B. Ducks at home off an extended road trip. My research showed the following information:
Anaheim has a winning record this year with 1, 2 or 3 days of rest and they score an average of 3.0 GPG (3.1 at home). Their home record in this spot is 18-7 with a recent streak of 7-1 since Jan. 1. Three of the seven wins were in OT and only three of seven were by more than one goal. These stats are important because as I stated earlier, I have little interest in laying more than -140 on a moneyline bet in any sport. With today’s line posted at -170, the bets I’m going to consider for this game are either puck line, regulation only or perhaps a team total. Here is a link to the free sports database showing the Ducks’ record with rest: team = Ducks and season = 2014 and 1 <= rest <= 3 and H
Note: When coming off a road win, the Ducks’ record at home this year with normal rest is 4-1 SU and 1-4 O/U – All four of the wins coming in regulation. In 2013, Anaheim was 6-3 in this spot with five of six wins coming in regulation.
Anaheim’s record this season at home off a road game is 7-3 but take away the three games where they were in a back-to-back and that record improves to 6-1 straight-up and 1-5-1 O/U. The Ducks outscored opponents 2.9 to 1.9 in these seven games.
PUTTING IT TOGETHER
When playing on the road, the Caps are 0-6 this year on zero rest and looking back the past few years we see a combined mark of 5-17 for Washington. When coming off a road loss, such as the situation for this game, Washington is 2-5 but it’s worth noting that both wins were against conference foes. The Caps gave up three goals or more in six of these seven matchups (3.1 avg). Here is an SDQL link to that team trend: team = Capitals and season >= 2012 and A and rest = 0 and p:AL
Justin Peters has been confirmed for this game and John Gibson is the likely starter for Anaheim. Gibson earned the win over Carolina and he’s 3-2 with a 2.35 GAA and .927 save percentage in limited use this year. Remember, Gibson was 3-0 for the Ducks during his rookie campaign last season and right now, he’s the team’s best option. He certainly seems like a better outlet than Peters (2-5-1) anyway. In his first year with the Caps, Peters has a 3.58 GAA and .870 save percentage and he’s allowed three or more goals in seven-straight appearances.
Back to our original system, the basis of this article, SDQL shows the Ducks are 13-4 since 2013 as home faves with rest against teams off a loss who are playing in a back-to-back. Four of the 13 wins were in OT so a regulation bet has gone 9-8. The price of 60 minute bet today even money and given the rest of our data, this feels like a good spot to make the play. Remember, this is a revenge game for the Ducks after losing 3-2 in OT at Washington last week. Since Bruce Boudreau took over on the west coast he has a .651 win percentage in same season revenge games at home including a 5-1 mark this year and 11-3 record since March 23, 2014.
Take Anaheim to win this game in regulation at even money