Baseball handicapping tips and trends using Sports Data to uncover winning picks
The St. Louis Cardinals have won five of seven meetings this season with their National League Central rival but baseball odds makers continue pressing the Reds as a hefty moneyline favorite. Today’s game features rookie left-hander Tyler Lyons (2-1, 2.66) vs. Mat Latos (5-0, 2.90) and the current line is Reds -154 and 8.5 Under (-113).
Dog bettors have given plenty of attention to the Cards according to sports betting sites and at plus-money, any team who carries a four-game division lead into the weekend automatically warrants a second look. Lyons was on the hook for a loss against the Giants in his last outing but the Cards have produced six wins in six tries this season when “picking up” their starter after coming up short in his last outing. Here’s a look at those six wins from KillerSports.com:
As you can see in the chart, St. Louis scored an average of 8.2 runs per game (RPG) and every win was by multiple runs. The only starter to hold the Cards under five runs was Stephen Strasburg (April 24) and against Latos the Cards have scored an average of 5.4 RPG the past four seasons.
The thing about the Reds this season is that other than Aroldis Chapman or perhaps Sam LeCure, their bullpen cannot be trusted. Cinci’s relievers have a team ERA of 3.78 and they’ve given up 73 earned runs including six through four innings of yesterday’s loss.
Since 2009, teams in the month of June whose pen allows six-plus runs are just 47-82 the next time out and the average runs allowed is 4.8. Include the ‘Home Team’ parameter at SportsDatabase.com and the run total inflates to 5.1 RPG allowed, seen here:
Cinci has never faced Lyons but they are .251 against lefties, just above the league average. Big home faves under this set of parameters are 16-10 but all of the losses came with price tags in the -180-plus range. Trim the line down to this range and the record for 2013 is 8-0:
Since 2008, teams in this range have won 67-percent of their games by scoring an average of 5.0 RPG and that set of numbers has steered us away from the side in this matchup and onto the total.
MAN BEHIND THE MASK
Mike Estabrook is scheduled to call balls and strikes tonight and since 2010, Estabrook has been a good “Over” bet in NL games. Home plate umpire data, or ‘HPU’ for short, is available everyday with the power of SDQL. Try this code for a “live” sample:
St. Louis is 15-13 O/U on the road this season and the Reds are 19-12 O/U at home for the fourth-highest “Over” win percentage in baseball (SDQL: team and H and season=2013). With conflicting info on the side for this matchup we will pass on the generous dog line and offer this selection on the total.
Pick: Take the Cards and Reds “Over” 8.5 runs (+102)
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