Saturday NHL Playoff Picks: Predators at Ducks

Today’s NHL Best Bet from the Nashville Predators and Anaheim Ducks, Game 5!

Tied 2-2, this Western Conference series shifts back to the left coast with Nashville looking to halt a two-game skid after opening with back-to-back road wins. Anaheim has built some momentum in this series and books are commanding a hefty price tag, anywhere from -135 (Pinnacle) to -180 (Sports Interaction).

During the regular season, Anaheim earned 25 wins on home ice but they’re just 4-4-2 in their past 10 at the Honda Center including a pair of 3-2 losses to the Preds. The Ducks made a goaltending switch for Game 3 and since taking over for John Gibson, Frederick Anderson has been stellar. This line move, however, right back to the range that we saw in Game’s 1 and 2, seems like it’s gone a little too far.

SDQL PLAYOFF SYSTEMS

Home ice has already proven to be overvalued in these playoffs, with Friday’s road sweep moving the away team’s record to 23-15 SU for a net profit of +13 units. Have a look at the list with SDQL text: playoffs=1 and A and season=2015

Upon further review we can see that when a series is tied, the overall record for road teams in database history is 71-71 SU, producing a 12-percent return on investment (ROI). That record is based on all lines but if you eliminate the biggest underdogs (more than +145), the ROI more than doubles. The win percentage stays strong (60-percent straight-up) and then if we look to isolate road teams off a loss (Predators), this sub-profile improves to 30-13 straight-up for a profit of more than 20 units since 2007 (43-percent ROI).

Nashville’s power play is only 1 for 19 but they’ve kept the Ducks in line, killing 11 of 12 penalties. The Predators need to get some production from their top line and it won’t be easy, but if Pekka Rinne can regain his early playoff form I think there is solid value on these Preds stealing another road win.

Pick: Take the Predators in Game 5

@PickSixtySports is 5-5 in the first round of the NHL playoffs. Follow us on Twitter for more SDQL betting stats, systems and predictions throughout the postseason!